Forums >Racing>Goal of Sub-3 Hour Marathon
Noyau - still congrats on a big pr. Looked at your log and maybe more consistant mileage over the months?
Welcome Last Runner. Maybe you've been here earlier and I didn't see you.
Roth Runner - nice splits
Greg - last cycle I was running a 20 or more every other weekend thru most of the cycle. Too much for me.
E - that 7:05 avg pace will feel easier come race day; plus you will have other runners to work off of. You'll be fine.
{{dcv}}
Well my training cycle is just about complete. Running a strong 14 miler Saturday and then an relatively ez week the following week. This cycle I tried to combine Hudson's medium and hard schedule and of course adapt to my schedule. One thing I did different this cycle is to drop my mileage to where I never went over 70 mpw. Last cycle I had several 80-85 mpw's. I also cut the training cycle down from a rigid 18 weeks to 15 weeks. But I also increased the quality of runs so feel pretty good. Last long run was suppose to be MP + 10 to 20 secs. 16.5 of those miles were MP +10-15 seconds and o.a. the 20 Miler was mp + 27 seconds. Pretty much ran the back half alone and heat and humidity were really tough. Drive to San Antonio a week from tomorrow and fly out to Portland the following Fri. morning for the Sunday race. 50-54 ag winners last few years normally 2:55 - 2:57 so hopefully I can get close!
Glad to see the thread is picking up again.
ksrunr All American 10K Feb. '10 Cowtown Half marathon Feb. '10 Boston '10
Roth Runner - Awesome job! (sorry for the late congratulations)
E- I second ksrunr, that 7:05/mi will feel easy come marathon day. I would foresee you being able to continue that pace, if not a bit faster throughout the whole race (assuming it is executed smartly).
I think there's a whole batch of people here that'll cream the 3 hour barrier in the next few weeks. They're running faster tune-up races than I was at similar mileages to me when I went sub-3 in May.
I foresee much celebrations to be had!
Long dead ... But my stench lingers !
Are we there yet?
Dopple.. I saw u put up 200 a couple weeks ago, good stuff.. what are you getting ready for? BTW, what's a good 50miler you recommend besides the JFK50 for an east coaster...
So team,
I know a lot of you experienced guys are tapering for Chicago on October 11th - good luck by the way. This will be the date for Melbourne marathon which will be my first. I need some advice Re: goal pace. I know I have been lurking here on the sub-3 hour marathon thread but I am certain looking at the training logs that I am not in that shape yet - it will come. McMillan suggest around a 3:05 on my 2 previous 10K races times, but apart from that I don't really have any markers and given Noyau's amazing speed and logged miles for a 3:17 first marathon (which is an unbelievably good result be the way) I thinking that 3:05-3:10 isn't even really in the ball park. Would probably be satisfied with anything less than 3:30 but yet again looking at my longest long run of 32km @ ~ 5:20/km pace and two borderline long runs since then during solid training weeks (~ 13 weeks of 60-70km/week) I am beginning to think that this is even a little ambitious. Would love some insights from all the experienced marathoners if you can remember back to your first one. Thanks.
Dwane
Run happy
Thanks Ewart/NACN/ksrunr/John/DB/Jim/Ken/dcv & Last Runner! This thread has been a massive help for me and I've learnt an awful lot from a lot of the people who hang out here (Jim especially). I'll do a race report when I get a chance, though if I'm honest it was a fairly smooth effort apart from a tiny fade between 35-40k. The half splits were 1:27:57 then 1:28:40 back. Noyau, I thought you would probably go for the sub 3 after the 5k performance. I have no doubt you'll get it next time with a bit more stamina in the bank. You have the speed for sure.
Thanks Ewart/NACN/ksrunr/John/DB/Jim/Ken/dcv & Last Runner!
This thread has been a massive help for me and I've learnt an awful lot from a lot of the people who hang out here (Jim especially).
I'll do a race report when I get a chance, though if I'm honest it was a fairly smooth effort apart from a tiny fade between 35-40k. The half splits were 1:27:57 then 1:28:40 back.
Noyau, I thought you would probably go for the sub 3 after the 5k performance. I have no doubt you'll get it next time with a bit more stamina in the bank. You have the speed for sure.
Great job RR, and great splits.
I think I could run something around 3:10 if my first half was a little bit more conservative
Dwayne,
I'm not sure I understood your post completely. But if this is your first marathon; I'd say run it with no expectations or goal times. Go run a good hard effort and see where you are. You have plenty of time to improve after that. I ran my first marathon at 17 years old after a summer of training for XC. I had no idea what to do except to finish the run and run hard.
So team, I know a lot of you experienced guys are tapering for Chicago on October 11th - good luck by the way. This will be the date for Melbourne marathon which will be my first. I need some advice Re: goal pace. I know I have been lurking here on the sub-3 hour marathon thread but I am certain looking at the training logs that I am not in that shape yet - it will come. McMillan suggest around a 3:05 on my 2 previous 10K races times, but apart from that I don't really have any markers and given Noyau's amazing speed and logged miles for a 3:17 first marathon (which is an unbelievably good result be the way) I thinking that 3:05-3:10 isn't even really in the ball park. Would probably be satisfied with anything less than 3:30 but yet again looking at my longest long run of 32km @ ~ 5:20/km pace and two borderline long runs since then during solid training weeks (~ 13 weeks of 60-70km/week) I am beginning to think that this is even a little ambitious. Would love some insights from all the experienced marathoners if you can remember back to your first one. Thanks. Dwane
Well I don't have a lot of experience and haven't run a marathon yet (get back to me in a week) but since you haven't got much response I'll throw in my 10c.
If you want to run to your limit and leave nothing on the table you are necessarily going to have to run a risk of crashing and burning. If you are within realistic reach of a major goal (eg sub-3) it may be worth taking a shot if you deem the goal worthy of the risk. (heh heh, I said 'deem')
However, I'd agree that your endurance looks to be a little low for any realistic shot at sub-3 right now. McMillan equivalents based on 10k times aren't a lot of guidance without the endurance to back them up - they more suggest what you could be capable of with the right endurance. Your 1:36 half marathon earlier this summer would be a better guide. That would suggest that you should be looking in the ballpark of 3:20-3:25.(Unless this was some outrageously hilly course or something).
If it was me I'd try a long run with a portion of it at this pace - say an 18 mile run with 6 (if you've never done this before) or 8 miles @ 3:20 pace. It should feel like a very tough workout but it shouldn't be an all out effort. If it feels like a regular long run and doesn't take too much out of you then I'd revise your goal up to 3:15 and continue such workouts, increasing the length of the marathon pace segment. If you struggle to hit this pace then you'll have to decide whether it's a good stretch goal with some 'race day magic' or whether it's a unrealistic goal.
John
I need some advice Re: goal pace...I thinking that 3:05-3:10 isn't even really in the ball park. Would probably be satisfied with anything less than 3:30
I need some advice Re: goal pace...
I thinking that 3:05-3:10 isn't even really in the ball park. Would probably be satisfied with anything less than 3:30
I can offer some words of advice to you as its not all that long since I completed my first marathon (a year in November) so I can still remember a few things about it.In general I agree that the race time predictors tend to be overly optimistic when predicting a marathon time based on shorter races. For what it is worth I did find a race time predictor that uses several formulae (rather than just one): http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/rp.php With your 10km race of 39:30 it comes up with times ranging from a shade under 3 hrs, up to about 3:15.Another approach to take is something I found on a thread somewhere on RA that pointed to a correlation between 10km race times and average training distance. It was put together by Jim2: http://mysite.verizon.net/jim2wr/id70.html There is quite a lot to read - but you are close to a taper so should have lots of spare time . In brief for the sort of mileage you are doing it suggests a marathon time of 5 to 5.3 times your 10km race time - ie 3:17 to 3:29.I expect that (like me) your main goal with a first marathon is to finish. I went out too fast and suffered towards the end of my first marathon and in hindsight I would have gone MUCH slower at the beginning - and would have finished sooner. I suggest that you set yourself a goal of going at no more than 3:30 pace for the first half (about 5:00/km), then see how you feel for the last half. Whatever you do do not get sucked into feeling so good in the first 5km that you go to fast. You should really feel like you are holding back and want to go faster - you will need the reserve in another 30km. Ignore people passing you - you'll probably pass them in an hour or so as they slow to a walk.The magic of the day may help you a lot on the day so ultimately it comes down to deciding how much risk to take. The faster you start then the more likely it is that you crash and burn before the finish - but perhaps you can tough it out and get a fantastic time. If you don't mind too much if you don't finish then shoot for 3:15 - you never know how it could turn out.Good luck for October 11th.
I can offer some words of advice to you as its not all that long since I completed my first marathon (a year in November) so I can still remember a few things about it.
In general I agree that the race time predictors tend to be overly optimistic when predicting a marathon time based on shorter races. For what it is worth I did find a race time predictor that uses several formulae (rather than just one): http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/rp.php With your 10km race of 39:30 it comes up with times ranging from a shade under 3 hrs, up to about 3:15.
Another approach to take is something I found on a thread somewhere on RA that pointed to a correlation between 10km race times and average training distance. It was put together by Jim2: http://mysite.verizon.net/jim2wr/id70.html There is quite a lot to read - but you are close to a taper so should have lots of spare time . In brief for the sort of mileage you are doing it suggests a marathon time of 5 to 5.3 times your 10km race time - ie 3:17 to 3:29.
I expect that (like me) your main goal with a first marathon is to finish. I went out too fast and suffered towards the end of my first marathon and in hindsight I would have gone MUCH slower at the beginning - and would have finished sooner. I suggest that you set yourself a goal of going at no more than 3:30 pace for the first half (about 5:00/km), then see how you feel for the last half.
Whatever you do do not get sucked into feeling so good in the first 5km that you go to fast. You should really feel like you are holding back and want to go faster - you will need the reserve in another 30km. Ignore people passing you - you'll probably pass them in an hour or so as they slow to a walk.
The magic of the day may help you a lot on the day so ultimately it comes down to deciding how much risk to take. The faster you start then the more likely it is that you crash and burn before the finish - but perhaps you can tough it out and get a fantastic time. If you don't mind too much if you don't finish then shoot for 3:15 - you never know how it could turn out.
Good luck for October 11th.
Running - cheaper than therapy
I had taken 8 weeks off (June 8th - August 3rd) and I am tring to cram some quality ultra-training into the 9 week period leading up to October 3-4.
http://www.northcoast24.org/
I am 25# heavier than when I ran 147.4 miles in 24 hours June 6-7, so I really do not expect much from this race ... but it will be good way to gain experience for 24 hour racing. A lot of 24 hour Big Dogs are at this race.
I do not know east coast 50 milers ... but here is a great resource to find ultras
http://www.jasonrobillard.com/ultraschedules/racesbydistance.html#50_Miles_to_59_Miles_
I do not know east coast 50 milers ... but here is a great resource to find ultras http://www.jasonrobillard.com/ultraschedules/racesbydistance.html#50_Miles_to_59_Miles_
25#.. man, pack a bag in case your water breaks. j/k
Thanks for that website... what a resource! Kill it in Lower Edgewater Park!
Norrin_Radd, Jim Howe, and Running at Sixty. Good luck this weekend and have a great race. I hope you all have good weather.
Thanks, and I hope the weather is as kind to you and Runnin at Sixty as it looks like being in Saramento. Looks like it will go from low '50's to high 50's!
And good running to Jim and Ken in the half in Sacramento. Jim has promised us a sub-1:30 (see sub-40 10k thread), and I wouldn't be surprised if Ken pulled out a PR on a flat course with cool weather.
After over a year on this thread (140 pages and going strong!) it feels strange to be the one up to bat. I'm strangely calm about the whole thing. I would have guessed I'd be freaking out by now but I'm not. I think having got through the training feeling healthy and uninjured I feel a certain confidence. Not confidence that I will beat 3:00 - I think that's got too many unknowns, especially for a first marathon - but confident that I am in a position to give it a good shot. I'm also confident I'm now old enough and wise enough to pace it sensibly and confident I won't quit when the going gets tough. Can we ever ask any more than that?