Forums >Racing>St. Louis Marathon Race Prediction,,,
Hey Folks
I'm running the Go!SaintLouis Marathon in 2 weekends. This will be my 4th marathon. And I'm very excited
I'm looking for some inputs on my pace and goal for this Race.
1. Recent Races: 10K time-trial: 44:33
2. My average MPW over the last 16 weeks: 50 (10 days of vacation with no running
last 10 weeks: 58
I run 6 days/week. All easy. 1 quality workout: either hill repeats, 800 repeats, or tempo (5 miles) at 7:30-7:35.
3. My race is on April 8th in S.Louis MIssory
4. I have only been running since late 2015. Consistent 4 runs/week in 2016. Better 2017 (5-6) runs/week (little under 2k miles)
5. TwinCities Marathon 2016 - 4:07
Colfax in Denver 2017 - 4:01
TwinCities 2017 - 4:49
6. Male/30
7. For my LR, I run by feel which usually translates into anything between 9:30-9:45
8. I have no particular goal for this race. I guess a PR would be nice. It is a rolling hill course which I'm a little concerned about.
What do you guys think I should aim for?
10K: (44:33) 13.1 (1:41:48) 26.2 - TwinCities17 (3:49:07)
I think you are definitely ready for a PR. 3:45 seems like a reasonable goal. If you want to ensure a PR maybe do the first half around 1:50 and see how it feels from there.
Did you blow up in your previous marathons, or run an even pace throughout?
Hot Weather Complainer
I think 3:45 is well within your capabilities
5km: 18:34 11/23 │ 10km: 39:10 8/23 │ HM: 1:26:48 9/23 │ M: 3:34:49 6/23
2024 Races:
Motorway Half Marathon February 25, 2024 1:29:55
Christchurch Half-Marathon April 21, 2024 1:27:34
Selwyn Marathon June 2, 2024
Dunedin Half Marathon September 15, 2024
I think you are definitely ready for a PR. 3:45 seems like a reasonable goal. If you want to ensure a PR maybe do the first half around 1:50 and see how it feels from there. Did you blow up in your previous marathons, or run an even pace throughout?
Yes, I hit the damn wall in all previous marathons. All around mile 23. In the last one, I was averaging around 8:30 before the wheels fell off to 9:50sh.
I also think 3:45 is reasonable too,,,
I have run the Go!St Louis race twice, one time the full and the second time the half. Just be careful. It is a hilly course. And the second half of the full is lonely. Also, as you run around downtown it is smelly (not sure if that bothers you but it really upset my stomach when we ran through the Brewery) and finally, bring every outfit you can conceive of wearing because spring weather in MO is absolutely ridiculus
One day at a time
I ran the half marathon a few years ago. The hardest part was the finish. It's a long, straight stretch - it feels as if you can see the finish line FOREVER!! It was a fun race, though. Some of the women from RA met up for it.
Pace Prophet
I'm known for being conservative in my estimates, and I think you can do 3:40. 3:45 should be a gimme. On the other hand, based on what you say about hitting the wall each time, and it being apparently a hilly race, you may want to be super-conservative just to have a good race.
Christirei, Teresadfp
Thank you guys for sharing your experiences. The day is looking to be wet with rain showers :/ Low temps in the 40s, which is perfect.
This is my 1st time in the city, and looking forward for the race.
ilanarama,
Thanks to the race prediction wizard This is very encouraging, but yes I'm aware of the hills and my history.
I think, depending on the weather too, I will start conservatively around 8:45 for the 1st few miles, and keep pushing the pace as long as I feel good.
Don’t push the pace too early. The first 10 miles of a marathon should feel nearly effortless. I wouldn’t push the pace until 16-17 and only then if I felt great.
Rick
With limited information I would say 3:45.
Are hills a concern? Sometimes the variety helps.
You have a history of bonking but maybe your training is better this time. How long is your long run and how have you felt during?
I think you should use a pace group to keep yourself slower in the beginning. You don't have to run with the group but be mindful of where they are. If you are passing the 3;40, group, you are going to fast. Maybe even run with the 4 hour group. That would give you some cushion for the hills and then push near the end.
12-22 Last One Standing - dnf 37 miles
1-23 Sun Marathon - 3:53
3-4-23 Red Mountain 55k - 7:02
4-15-23 Zion 100 - 27:59
Just noticed an error. Opening post says last marathon was 4:49. You signature says 3:49. So never mind running with the 4 hour pace group (I thought your PR was 4:01). That is too slow. Look for a 3:45 - 3:50 group.
With limited information I would say 3:45. Are hills a concern? Sometimes the variety helps. You have a history of bonking but maybe your training is better this time. How long is your long run and how have you felt during?
My LRs were great. My last 6 LRs: ,,,,, 20,18, 21, 21, 22,16.5. I did do a fast finish in my last 21 (10 miles at sub 8:25sh).
I also did a tempo finish in my 22 miles ( last 5 miles at sub 8:00).
They do have a 3:50 pacer. I could run nearby him/her till half-way or so, see how I feel, and go from there.
I would say hills are alright
paul2432
Absolutely. I usually don't push until I pass mile 13 or so.
21 with the last 10 miles at 8:25 is a very good sign for sub-3:45, provided that your usual LR is as you say more like 9:30 pace. Honestly I think starting with the 3:50 group would be too slow. With the mileage you've got, and your speed, you should be able to run 3:45 provided that you don't get crazy early.
I would not push the pace at 13. I realize you will have to modify paces for the rolling terrain (look at http://mymarathonpace.com/Pacing_Spreadsheets.html for an excel spreadsheet that you can use to get an idea of how to modify pacing, or print a terrain-specific pace band - your race is in there, and really, it's inexpensive and useful) but I would aim to stay on pace for the first 18-20 miles and only then give it gas if you want to push.
This is sage advice. When I ran CIM in 2014 I went with the 3:35 pace group and at 13 thought I could do 3:30 so ran the next 8 sub 8 and then blew up at mile 22. The fast part of the pace group (-2:30) passed me up around mile 25 and the slow part of the pace group (+/- 1:00) caught me at mile 26 and pulled me to the finish in 3:34+. If I hadn't gotten cocky, would have finished with the fast part of the group.
Another thing to think about is how often you should fuel. I think I came closest to getting it right at that race and IIRC did 2 gels a 10-15 minutes before the start and then every 5-6 miles afterward. Should have used 1 more gel, but I think I forgot at around mile 22 and then decided it wasn't worth it after that.
Sounds like you're pretty well prepared, you'll do great!
Time for weather stalking and taper madness...
Ray
So, how did it go?