Forums >Racing>Realistic marathon goal?
Hey y'all. I have the basic pre-race jitters I get every time I race a marathon and am looking to be talked off the ledge by someone with similar PRsGoal race: Carmel, 31 Mar 2018 (flat, high of 43)
Goal time/pace: 3:05/7:04ish
Training cycle PR HM: 1:25:23 (Katy HM, 2 Feb 2018 - flat, high of 50)
Current marathon PR: 3:10 (May 2017, Flying Pig - hillier, high of 50)
Since returning from 6mo no running due to two hip SFX from Dec 2015 - May 2016, I stopped with coaching and training plans and gradually built my running back for a year to run the Flying Pig. I didn't know when to say "enough" with the running part and was running 60-70 MPW with a sub-elite schedule. Currently, I do about 50/50 running and cycling (not just spinning the pedals). Up until my half on 2 Feb, I was doing 16-18mi long runs every week since Nov, and after that half, I still did long runs, but also did more VO2 work in smaller races and track workouts.
5mo leading to now:
Bike: 405mi/mo, 357, 457, 310, 350
Run: 193, 183, 179, 163, 167
5mo leading to last marathon:
Bike 300, 300, 300, 277, 296Run: 151, 151, 151, 170, 167
Pace Prophet
I'm a little confused - your monthly mileage doesn't correspond to 60-70mpw. But given your HM, I'd say your goal is reasonable provided you're getting in the LRs at a reasonable pace that corresponds to sufficient time on your feet.
Sorry, the 60-70mpw was referencing my pre-injury training. It's where I literally started to crack, and was run only. And the 16-18mi long runs were all at least 2:00-2:20 time on feet.
Did you run any races leading up to Flying Pig? What were your times in those?
You have the speed to run 3:05, but not sure about the endurance. The running alone probably isn’t enough, hard to say if the added cycling will get you there.
As an aside, building too much volume too quickly is more likely the cause of your injuries than the volume itself. If you really want to see what you can do with running slowly phase out the cycling and phase in more running.
I did Cherry Blossom in 1:05 as leadup to the Pig. Since I was coming back from injury, I played it pretty safe and didn't race other than that. I think I was averaging about 35mpw running plus 75mpw cycling.
I agree with Paul. Cherry Blossom's a 10M, right? Using that relationship, adjusting for Flying Pig vs flat/straight sea-level marathon, puts you at around 3:04 by my calculations, handwaving the added cycling. (I'm using Greg Maclin's Marathon Course Time Predictor plus his Race Time Estimator.)
I don't think 2:20 on your feet is enough, though, and would expect you to have a tough time on the back half.
I think this comes down to your goals.
3:05:00 or bust (3:05:01 and a 3:20 are equally disappointing): Pace for 3:05:00 (I think you have at least a 50% shot, but probably less than 75%)
Avoid a big blowup: Pace for 3:07-3:08
Or something in the middle.
Whatever strategy you chose, make adjustments as you go. Sometimes, regardless of training its just not your day and the sooner you can course correct the better. Other times, you have race of your life, although that's harder to know until you are in the last 5 miles or so.
Agree with the advice above. I think you'd be better to play on the conservative side. Maybe pick up a little bit after the halfway point if you feel good, and then try to surge in the final ~10k if you still feel good. Hopefully that would help mitigate a big blow-up. Endurance is probably the unknown here. You almost certainly have the speed and general aerobic fitness.
In my experience the Flying Pig is going to run at least 2-3 minutes slower than a flat course for someone at your pace - assuming you're smart on the early hills and well hill-trained (way more if you're foolish).
I'm also running Carmel tomorrow...and dealing with similar jitters, if I'm honest. I plan on being a little conservative as well, using the first ~4 miles of slight downhill to get my air under me. Then assess after the halfway point. Looks to be awesome weather after all this junky rain we've had in the midwest. I'm aiming for a similar time, so feel free to say hello if you see me when we're lined up in the starting corral. I'll be the dude wearing a neon green Flying Pig singlet and (probably) yellow arm sleeves, with a yellow handheld water bottle. I'll be somewhere around the 3:00 and 3:05 pacers.
Best of luck!
Are we there, yet?
I'm not sure how to factor in the cycling, otherwise 3:05 seems very reasonable. Looking at your shorter shorter distance race times (18:56 5K, 30:41 5M), there doesn't seem to be much of a drop off in endurance. On a perfect day I think sub-3:00 is possible.
2024 Races:
03/09 - Livingston Oval Ultra 6-Hour, 22.88 miles
05/11 - D3 50K 05/25 - What the Duck 12-Hour
06/17 - 6 Days in the Dome 12-Hour.
Well, I ran a 3:06:40. A 4 minute pr and bq. My big mistake was letting the 3:05 pacer burn me up, but other than that, I'm happy!
https://www.runningahead.com/logs/e5ffddff35f84ba5881bb0816a0f435a/workouts/c473ea6dc2b046538eedda0f64d51e78
Yay, congratulations!
Thanks I did struggle at the end because marathon, and also southern wind . I stayed with the 3:05 pacer a little too long. His splits were more aggressive than mine are when I pace. Oh well. PR!
Great work! I'm sure we were running together for a while. The pacer was definitely running a little fast, but if you needed/wanted a sub 3:05 then you had to stick pretty close to him, unfortunately. I hope you're proud of your time! You should be.
I ran a BQ -5:24, which should more than hunt for a Boston bib.