Olympic Marathon (Read 1594 times)

Calling him a 2:08 and change guy is silly.

It's not if it's your PB.

On a hilly course, he split 1:02:45 for the second half marathon. The opening 5k of the trials was an easy jog.

That's WHY he split 1:02:45 for the second half. Until you run faster than 2:08, you're a 2:08 guy. Period.

In his career, he may run under Haile's record. Unfortunately, Wanjiru will probably run faster still.

He's almost certainly not going to. The jump from 2:08 to 2:04 is huge. There are many who have debuted faster than 2:08, including at least three last year. Only three people have run under 2:05.

Put his performances in perspective, on the day, on those courses, with the competition, at his age... the potential there cannot be denied.

There's a lot of potential. I see this on LetsRun when people (Americans) talk about Alan Webb. There's a strange tendency to assume as a given that Webb and Hall will go on to make significant jumps in performance. For all you know, Hall might never break 2:10 again, or he might break Khannouchi's national record. You really can't go off anointing him as someone who can run under 2:04:26 just yet. That's a very, very weighty claim. Even Wanjiru was arrogant to talk about a marathon world record last December, and he has a world record already. Improvement in the marathon at a very high level is extremely difficult. Geb ran 26:22, but it took him forever to run 2:04. Felix Limo debuted at 2:06:42 five years ago, but has only made it to 2:06:14. Evans Rutto never beat his debut, and probably never will.

Quote from Mr R on 4/10/2008 at 9:20 PM: Calling him a 2:08 and change guy is silly. It's not if it's your PB. On a hilly course, he split 1:02:45 for the second half marathon. The opening 5k of the trials was an easy jog. That's WHY he split 1:02:45 for the second half. Until you run faster than 2:08, you're a 2:08 guy. Period. In his career, he may run under Haile's record. Unfortunately, Wanjiru will probably run faster still. He's almost certainly not going to. The jump from 2:08 to 2:04 is huge. There are many who have debuted faster than 2:08, including at least three last year. Only three people have run under 2:05. Exactly: if it's YOUR PB. When talking about your own PBs, it doesn't matter if they were run backwards, up a mountain, with your wife sitting on your shoulders, it's still your PB. However, as fans, talking about the sport, we can and should qualify runners in more ways than PBs. My point is, there's no runner in the world better than Ryan who has only a 2:08 PB. Not even close. It's not accurate to talk about him dropping 4 minutes to surpass Haile's record, because he probably only needs to improve (as a runner) half that amount. Don't forget that he had never run a marathon 12 months ago. He's still a novice, with over a decade to improve. He's also running the event with the most potential for long term improvement. Note, that I did not say that Hall would run low 2:04s. I said he may. It's still the softest record in world distance running, because so few real attempts have been made at it by world beaters in their prime.

So you don't think he will improve on that?

Don't know but I personally think he will. But my point was that Adeel said that the two Chinese runners who ran 2:08 at Beijing last year were "nothing special", his words not mine. We know Hall, who's run 2:08 is something special so why aren't those Chinese? By the way the Chinese guy who came in second at that race was 19 years old at the time! Anyone think he won't improve? I agree pretty much with what people are saying here but that when a 19 year old runs a 2:08 and the Olympics are in his home country (which is fanatically Nationalistic, probably more than any other country in existance) I believe he's a threat to medal. The Chinese are motivated by national pride (and never mind that their athletes are all selected, trained and nurtured, ala the Soviets, at an early age in their sport) - they will win where they are not expected to.

Kibet is a very experienced marathoner who has just once managed to crack 2:09, and that was years ago. His win at WC was a shock, even considering the fact that the WC Marathon is a B-level race. Hall debuted faster than Kibet has ever run, finishing just 45 seconds behind the winner (indicative of the hot weather on the day). Definitive comparisons are tough to make, because Hall's resume is so short, but I doubt that Kibet will ever beat Hall.

Yes, I'm contrarian. Americentricism really bugs me.

No, you're a realist. I already got beat up for being Captain Negativity. I would love for an American to medal, but I am not going to hold my breath. Should be fun to watch though.

It definitely should be fun to watch. As it stands right now, I will be in Beijing August 23-24. I hope I can manage to catch the race at two points.

Awesome. Yes, I suppose the nationalism in the U.S. is troubling to a Canuck. It's quite obnoxious. But shouldn't citizens be proud of their chosen host country? Americans are either idealistic, or they want to be, or they think they are. The olympics celebrate nationalism.

Americans suffer from an unfortunate myopia, which manifests itself in being unsure of where the Iraq and the Asian countries are on a globe or in being unsure of how anyone could possibly beat Alan Webb.

Spot on. Spot on.