Marathon number 2 - What should I aim for? (Read 699 times)

I've got my 2nd marathon (Rotorua Marathon) booked and paid for. May 2nd is the date - 5 weeks away. From those veterans out there what time do you think I should aim for? I managed my first marathon (Auckland Marathon 2008) 5 months ago in 3:10:31 from a 5 month buildup peaking at 75km (47mi) a week with one 34km (21.2mi) run and average "long run" pace of about 5:22/km (8:38/mi). This time I have a similar buildup time, but will peak at about 100km (60mi)/wk - averaging 29km (18mi) long runs every week since November with about 6x20 mi+ runs and an average "long run" pace of about 5:24/km (8:42/mi) over a more hilly route than my last buildup. I've done a couple of 10km road races and managed a 3:52/km (6:13/mi) pace for the fastest. So what time do you think I should shoot for ? I'm thinking along the lines of some multiple targets: -bronze medal: finish -silver medal: meet or improve my PR -gold medal: ?3:05, 3:00? I want to do better than marathon #1, but I do not want to set the pace too fast and burn out early. Or perhaps I should just slam down the accelerator and try too keep going at top speed all the way? Advice? Suggestions?

I've got my 2nd marathon (Rotorua Marathon) booked and paid for. May 2nd is the date - 5 weeks away. From those veterans out there what time do you think I should aim for? I managed my first marathon (Auckland Marathon 2008) 5 months ago in 3:10:31 from a 5 month buildup peaking at 75km (47mi) a week with one 34km (21.2mi) run and average "long run" pace of about 5:22/km (8:38/mi).

I don't have any advice for you, but reading things like this makes me want to just give up! I'm always impressed by (and jealous of!) folks who run so fast. I look forward to hearing how number 2 goes.

That was a damned nice debut Ian, and your prep for your second sounds great. Using Eric's magic race time predictor: I've found most race predictors are fairly aggressive, especially if you are using 5K race times to predict a half or full marathon. RunningAHEAD's predictor has returned what seem to be more realistic results for me, but still might be a "best case" scenario. I would put your 10K time into a couple of them to see what the range of predictions is, and add some time to the pace if the predicted time seems to be too aggressive. I wouldn't just slam down the accelerator, been there and done that. The end result met my goal, but the last 10K wasn't a lot of fun. If you check out my report, be sure to click the link to mikeymike's blueprint for a well run marathon. I've never been able to pull off an even split, never mind a negative split but that's the way the good ones do it. Your goal should be to run the first half comfortably hard but leaving something in the tank for a strong second half. Best of luck with your race Ian, I'm looking forward to your report.

3:52 per k = 38:40 for 10k Although 2:53 seems out of reach, you should have a decent shot at sub-3 on a reasonably fast course.

No, don't give up mo3. We all come at this from different places and we all get different things out of the experience. Do the best you can. Make it fun (although it hurts sometimes) and get what you want out of it.

+1, SRL is a wise guy.

Thanks for the words of advice. I've decided to shoot for 2:59:59, and acknowledge that it may end in a crash and burn - but hey nothing ventured, nothing gained. I should end up with a good race report either way. Deep down I wanted to find a way to convince myself that sub 3hrs is possible. The "factoid" I've used to justify my target is reading on a thread somewhere that a 1% reduction in weight should give (about) a 1% reduction in marathon time. The extra miles I've put in have dropped my weight by about 6% since my first marathon so if this is right I should see a 6% reduction in my time - which will put me under 3 hrs. Thats a good enough excuse for me to give it a go.