The COVID-19 Wild West Thread (Read 601 times)

My grandpa used to wear a button that said "You can always tell a Swede, but you can't tell him much." How's that herd immunity going for you dummies, now...?

My grandpa used to wear a button that said "You can always tell a Swede, but you can't tell him much." How's that herd immunity going for you dummies, now...?

A worldwide pandemic and you focus on the negative. 

 

Were you dropped on your head?

 

Yes, and my lovely 85yo mother has been apologising ever since. ❤️

Technological determinism is a theory according to which the technology of a society determines the development of its cultural values and social structures. Many people believe that this term was first originated by an American sociologist Thorstein Veblen.

 

Both Sweden and Michigan have a population of roughly 10,000,000. Sweden has had just over 300,000 positive test and 7,300 C19 deaths. Michigan 450,000 positive test and 10,700 deaths. Outside of having an advantage of being a remote or island state/nation and isolating yourself, no elected official's policy method seems to be working for the general population, especially the elderly, much better than the other at this point in the overall timeline.

The distinction here is that the largest number of deaths in MI occurred early-on in the pandemic, in the communities surrounding a major international airport and within impoverished neighborhoods (alongside NYC's early outbreak, for similar reasons. People with no insurance are far less likely to seek care until it is far too late, then hospitals were overrun). Our cases and deaths greatly plummeted over the Spring and Summer as our governor instituted "safer at home," mask mandates, social distancing, and businesses that could have people WFH did so and continue to do so. #s began to rise again when these things were loosened (and/or as people shirked their responsibilities), thanks to our Republican legislature removing our governor's powers to install protections. Also thanks to the not insignificant # of domestic terrorists who planned to kidnap and kill my governor and "freedum" types passing around recall petitions because they don't want to be told what to do by a woman Democrat (or even the state's health department), even if it means saving grandma and their next-door neighbor.

You can see where Whitmer's hands were tied by our legislature. We went from months of having some of the lowest infection rates in the country to being back up amongst the hardest-hit states:

Outside of having an advantage of being a remote or island state/nation and isolating yourself, no elected official's policy method seems to be working for the general population, especially the elderly, much better than the other at this point in the overall timeline.

This is just not correct. Some countries have done a much better (and worse) job than others.

The US has 3x the cases per million and nearly 4x the deaths per million of Germany, which is the furthest thing from an island nation, surrounded by countries faring much worse and has 7x the population density of the US.

Ireland, which is on a literal island, has 38x the deaths per million of South Korea, a virtual island nation similar in land mass to Ireland but with 1.5x the population density and much closer to ground zero of the pandemic.

Sweden has 4.6x the deaths per million of Denmark, which has 5x the population density with its largest city is literally connected to Sweden by a busy bridge.

Some countries were unlucky and got hit hard before the world knew much about the pandemic and some truly have geographic advantages, but there's overwhelming evidence that policy decisions have resulted in huge differences in how many people have gotten sick and died. If the US had had as competent a national response as Germany, we would have 217,000 fewer dead Americans.

 

This is just not correct. Some countries have done a much better (and worse) job than others.

 

The US has 3x the cases per million and nearly 4x the deaths per million of Germany, which is the furthest thing from an island nation, surrounded by countries faring much worse and has 7x the population density of the US.

 

Ireland, which is on a literal island, has 38x the deaths per million of South Korea, a virtual island nation similar in land mass to Ireland but with 1.5x the population density and much closer to ground zero of the pandemic.

 

Sweden has 4.6x the deaths per million of Denmark, which has 5x the population density with its largest city is literally connected to Sweden by a busy bridge.

 

Some countries were unlucky and got hit hard before the world knew much about the pandemic and some truly have geographic advantages, but there's overwhelming evidence that policy decisions have resulted in huge differences in how many people have gotten sick and died. If the US had had as competent a national response as Germany, we would have 217,000 fewer dead Americans.

Think we can have agreement between us in the second sentence, without being as dismissive as the statement in the first. My mistake was stating an absolute "no elected official..." when making a general statement on policy decisions effecting the general population along the "overall timeline".

Using deaths as the criteria, since mid October, they have been significantly worse in Germany than they ever were. Ireland's death spike was one of those that happen early when little was known. Sweden's policy was working until it quit working. I would argue that Denmark's and South Korea's success has also been enhanced greatly due to the strength of those country's strong social contract.

In other words, until this is all said and done, jury may be out on whether the effect has been on the "when" rather than the "if" or the "degree"?

In MA, you paid your high price early and hard but appear to have it under control as best as possible now. In MO it took forever to get here, popped, and is now coming back under control. Then you have the "two wave" states.

Where I think me and you differ most is on whether the most effective response needs to originate at the national or state and local level? Should the national response be to provide support only? Should it come in the form of national orders and mandates or promotion of personal responsibility...both with accurate, informed guidance? IDK, orders and mandates, more often than not, are increasing conflict. Seems the further away the source of the order and mandate, the greater the conflict. And on the other hand, there are places where enough folks don't seem to be willing to hold up the personal responsibility side. Answers are hard and its frustrating.

Interesting earlier when I asked the question of what behavior you would change under our country's new leadership. Both you and Half Crazy said none. Me either. Don't think either of the three of us have been sick? Doubt any of us has infected anyone? Would guess we're all pretty proficient at doing what is necessary to protect ourselves, our families, and our communities regardless of other's behaviors. Bet all three, to some degree take a different approach. Take a different set of three people doing the same thing and they'd be on the internet arguing and calling each other names. Things are screwed up.

FWIW, have to attribute a significant degree of my ability so far to avoid C19, along with other maladies, to the level of my overall health. That level would not be possible without the benefits of the years of running. You (mikeymike) contributed often with guidance when I was a newbie twelve years ago, and were a big influence when learning how to do this in a manner that was sustainable for the long haul. I thank you for that.

 

Think we can have agreement between us in the second sentence, without being as dismissive as the statement in the first. My mistake was stating an absolute "no elected official..." when making a general statement on policy decisions effecting the general population along the "overall timeline".

 

Using deaths as the criteria, since mid October, they have been significantly worse in Germany than they ever were. Ireland's death spike was one of those that happen early when little was known. Sweden's policy was working until it quit working. I would argue that Denmark's and South Korea's success has also been enhanced greatly due to the strength of those country's strong social contract.

 

In other words, until this is all said and done, jury may be out on whether the effect has been on the "when" rather than the "if" or the "degree"?

 

In MA, you paid your high price early and hard but appear to have it under control as best as possible now. In MO it took forever to get here, popped, and is now coming back under control. Then you have the "two wave" states.

 

Where I think me and you differ most is on whether the most effective response needs to originate at the national or state and local level? Should the national response be to provide support only? Should it come in the form of national orders and mandates or promotion of personal responsibility...both with accurate, informed guidance? IDK, orders and mandates, more often than not, are increasing conflict. Seems the further away the source of the order and mandate, the greater the conflict. And on the other hand, there are places where enough folks don't seem to be willing to hold up the personal responsibility side. Answers are hard and its frustrating.

 

Interesting earlier when I asked the question of what behavior you would change under our country's new leadership. Both you and Half Crazy said none. Me either. Don't think either of the three of us have been sick? Doubt any of us has infected anyone? Would guess we're all pretty proficient at doing what is necessary to protect ourselves, our families, and our communities regardless of other's behaviors. Bet all three, to some degree take a different approach. Take a different set of three people doing the same thing and they'd be on the internet arguing and calling each other names. Things are screwed up.

 

FWIW, have to attribute a significant degree of my ability so far to avoid C19, along with other maladies, to the level of my overall health. That level would not be possible without the benefits of the years of running. You (mikeymike) contributed often with guidance when I was a newbie twelve years ago, and were a big influence when learning how to do this in a manner that was sustainable for the long haul. I thank you for that.

Amazing. It all works until it stops working. At a national level for the United States a mask mandate wouldn't really do anything because I'm pretty unaware of a location I can be, other than my house, without a mask on. Why does it matter if Joe Biden says "I require masks everywhere from now on because I'm the President and it's the right thing to do" or if we just put it onto people for their own personal responsibility?

Local college school of medical doctor production sent out a survey asking a bunch of questions about covid 19 including if people would get the vaccine. "uh....you give me a check for $300 signed by Joe Biden and I'll push people out of the way to get that vaccine." I have a kid in daycare. If I can't get sick with him coming and going as he pleases I'm not going to get sick showing up to work with my coworkers wearing masks, or to a marathon. While I WAS around the same group for my last marathon for more than 15 minutes I could have spaced out simply by the race not having a dedicated pacer. Fireworks, Christmas, skiing, camping, haircuts. All actions I can perform without being worried about catching COVID 19. Somehow the State and Federal officials don't believe/trust me.