Forums >Health and Nutrition>The COVID-19 Wild West Thread
edit: oh yeah....the development of the vaccine is to help Donald Trump's reelection
where did anyone say that?
Problem Child
In the end, we have no idea if or when a vaccine will be available. Period. There are 9 candidates in Phase III trials, none more than a couple months. One has already been halted due to serious safety concerns, and may ultimately get derailed. The trials are all generally 2 year trials, meaning that the only way we will have an answer earlier is if there is substantial and fast evidence of either a strong protective effect, or no change of a protective effect. Assuming one of these vaccines does emerge as being effective AND that it sails quickly through FDA approval, there are all the issues with manufacturing, distribution, and administration Spaniel and others have mentioned. In short, there is no pipeline or infrastructure for any of this at the moment. Assuming an effective vaccine, we could still build all that out in the next 9 months, but it would take strong and trusted leadership and support at all levels of society. These are not features I currently see in our nation.
In the end, we have no idea if or when a vaccine will be available. Period.
There are 9 candidates in Phase III trials, none more than a couple months. One has already been halted due to serious safety concerns, and may ultimately get derailed. The trials are all generally 2 year trials, meaning that the only way we will have an answer earlier is if there is substantial and fast evidence of either a strong protective effect, or no change of a protective effect. Assuming one of these vaccines does emerge as being effective AND that it sails quickly through FDA approval, there are all the issues with manufacturing, distribution, and administration Spaniel and others have mentioned. In short, there is no pipeline or infrastructure for any of this at the moment. Assuming an effective vaccine, we could still build all that out in the next 9 months, but it would take strong and trusted leadership and support at all levels of society. These are not features I currently see in our nation.
this is why I was asking if you envision a society without wearing masks. With how dangerous COVID 19 is and the uncertianty of how many people who will actually be vaccinated I can't see why we would ever go back to not wearing masks.
IF the trials are 2 years long that's 2022 at the earliest. Unless of course they fast track it through FDA regulations. I mean....fast tracking through safety protocols worked out so well for Boeing it should be just fine for something like a vaccination. Right? Everyone has such a strong trust in the current leadership, and everyone trusts the new boss that comes in in the middle of a project to start doing things their way, right? So if we don't trust the leadership, and the leadership is about to change, where is this newfound faith and trust in leadership going to come from? Maybe the scientific community all works together to achieve one common goal without bickering and they put aside petty differences. You know....because health is the focus and not personal gain.
Many of us aren't sure what the hell point you are trying to make and no matter how we guess, it always seems to be something else. Which usually means a person is doing it on purpose.
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click the link i provided and read the article.
OK, you went to a Politics page on the Huffington Post and are surprised they talked about politics. It seems like you are just making up people to argue with.
I did an internet search. I will make sure not to present you with information you don't want to read I guess. I don't read the huffington post. Literally just typed some stuff into Bing and pulled an article where it said Trump is doing this to raise his re-election potential. I thought it was part of the conversation. Turns out I'm just a dipshit as usual and need to suck start a shotgun at this point. Safer than walking around the state of Maine. COVID 19 is too deadly.
Are we there, yet?
That was widely speculated when he said a vaccine would be available by November 1, coincidentally just days before the election. That estimate has since been frequently revised.
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Yeah this is a pretty common theory out there, i.e. he will pressure companies to get the vaccine done before election day.
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There are 9 candidates in Phase III trials, none more than a couple months. One has already been halted due to serious safety concerns, and may ultimately get derailed. .
Which one was derailed? Would like to read about it if you have anything.
Mother of Cats
I think he's out of time (I have no personal expertise here). Wouldn't it need to have completed clinical trials by this time in order to be approved and at least somewhat out on the market before early November?
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No I think the idea was that he could at least announce it before the elections as a final surprise before the election, not necessarily that people would be using it at that point. But otherwise yes, amazing how it's already the end of September. 2020 has been a blast!
Cobra Commander Keen
*snip* 2020 has been a blast!
Is that a euphemism for "2020 blows"?
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Astra Zenica after a case of transverse myelitis. Since then, there apparently has been a second case. I'm curious to hear spaniel's take.
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Poor baby
Generally, yes. But in theory, the FDA could change its methods, and Trump could cause that to happen.
The bigger issue is that no publicly traded company is likely to want to take the risk before they have reasonable data that the investments in vaccine development will pay off and not have high lawsuit risk.
Didn't know about the second case. That's not good.
Feeling the growl again
Recognize I originally chimed in because of my familiarity with mRNA vaccines and the companies developing them. I don't claim to be a vaccine or COVID expert of any sort. My specific experience was platform-related.
That disclaimer out of the way....
I have no information beyond anyone else in the public. I see a source saying the first subject had undiagnosed MS, so their immune system could already have been out of whack. I see little reference to the second case yet. Really, really hard to draw any conclusions. But certainly if we see a third case (if the second is confirmed?), and the other vaccine trials haven't seen this, there could be a hard stop to this trial. Safety data is always a benefit/risk scenario. If you have a cancer patient with 6 months of life expectancy, a good deal of toxicity will be accepted if there is a meaningful extension of life. If you have diabetes, the bar for toxicity is significantly reduced. Talking about a vaccine for a disease with a low single digit fatality rate...at worst...in the overall population, very low incidence but severe toxicities such as this can be a show stopper.
One concern with anything immunomodulatory is antigen promiscuity. Our immune system scans for sequences in snippets of proteins which are displayed on cells by a molecule called HLA. This is a surveillance mechanism. If the immune system sees a cell displaying something it considers foreign, it attacks and kills that cell. That's what vaccines do...they train cells to display danger signals and create a fast-response contingent so if the invader arrives the immune system can mount an immediate response, rather than having to mount one from the ground up which takes longer. One potential problem is if somehow what you vaccinate against is similar to something normal in the body. So you train the immune system to attack something normal. There is a specific example of this where they tried to train the immune system to attack tumors expressing a certain MAGE tumor antigen, but there was a similar amino acid sequence in the TITAN protein expressed in the heart. Several patients died as a result. I'm not saying this is what happened with the AZ vaccine, I have no data. I'm only trying to provide some context as to the kind of problems which can result and why there is such high sensitivity in patients being treated particularly when they are otherwise healthy.
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