Interesting article on the (in)accuracy of race time predictors (Read 522 times)


Not dead. Yet.

    Very cool!  But I especially like the example of how to connect to runningahead using the api.  Thanks!

     

    Now I need to get my own key and then think up something cool to do with it.  I would probably use flask.  Smile

    How can we know our limits if we don't test them?

      Here's my graph...

       

      Screen Shot 2013-04-25 at 10.59.58 PM

       

      Interesting: if I take the 3 Bourbon Chase relay legs out, the coefficient becomes 1.068 and the marathon hits the line...

        Very cool!  But I especially like the example of how to connect to runningahead using the api.  Thanks!

         

        Now I need to get my own key and then think up something cool to do with it.  I would probably use flask.  Smile

         

        Well I am glad it is working for some people, although I am still not sure what was happening before.  And sdizazzo, I do agree that the API opens up all sorts of potentially cool opportunities -- it's pretty slick.

          Even when I throw out the known outliers, Doug's tool gives me around 1.09.

          Like I said, either I'm a pansy marathon runner or else I'm just not cut out for it.  Dead

          - Joe

          all running goals are under review by the executive committee.


          Dad of a real runner

            Even when I throw out the known outliers, Doug's tool gives me around 1.09.

            Like I said, either I'm a pansy marathon runner or else I'm just not cut out for it.  Dead

             

            Way cool - and like joescott it confirms that I am too damn noncommitted to the training needed to run a quality marathon, or there is some physical limitation that moves me further up the scale.  My coefficient is 1.119.  Wonder what it is if I throw out the crash and burn in August?

              Even when I throw out the known outliers, Doug's tool gives me around 1.09.

              Like I said, either I'm a pansy marathon runner or else I'm just not cut out for it.  Dead

               

              I think it means you're a miler. Crazy people run that race.

              Runners run.


              Spring- wishful thinking

                It barfs for me, but it looks like it is trying to graph out my 50 mile PR?  (Which will be way off anyway because it's on hilly single track).

                 

                MTA - Doug, PM'd you the error output.


                Got Hills?

                   

                  But online tools are awesome!!!

                   

                  For fun, and since I have been playing around with the RunningAhead API, I built a quick online tool that allows you to analyze your race performance and calculate the coefficient using races stored in your log from 2010 to now.

                   

                  You can find it here: http://runningahead-api-test.appspot.com/

                   

                   

                   

                  Very nice!  It's one thing to have all the times from various races available, but seeing them in a chart convinces me more of the trend.

                  "Not to touch the Earth, not to see the Sun, nothing left to do but run, run, run..."

                    Even when I throw out the known outliers, Doug's tool gives me around 1.09.

                    Like I said, either I'm a pansy marathon runner or else I'm just not cut out for it.  Dead

                     

                    You are not a pansy marathoner -- your workouts are enough to show that. I agree with mikey -- mile/3k/5k is your sweet spot.


                    Fat butt on couch

                      Interesting, I get 1.035 based on what is in RA since 2010...which, pretty much confirms what I already knew.

                      "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

                       

                        Nice little widget dougnd, new toy to play with.

                          LedLincoln,

                           

                          Hmmm, the traceback shows that it is dying when trying to parse data I get from RA.  I modified it to print out the JSON object it is trying to parse if parsing it fails.  So If you run it again now it will likely print out something like:

                           

                          {"activityName": "Run", "workoutID": 6, "workoutName": "Race", "raceStats": {"fieldSize": 814, "fieldPlacement": 327}, "course": {"id": "01938419384902385sdfkljalaj34j", "name": "2013 Goodwill Mud Run"}, "activityID": 10, "weather": {"conditions": ["overcast"], "temperature": {"value": 60, "unit": "F"}}, "details": {"duration": 3433.0, "distance": {"value": 3.5, "unit": "mi"}}, "time": "09:45:00", "date": "2013-04-14", "attributes": {"excludePR": true}, "id": "d0897asg98df7gas098gfas9df99s8df", "channel": "standard"}

                           

                          If you post that here, or pm it to me, I can try to figure out what is going on (if there is personal information or whatever, you can remove that bit, I suspect that random non-printable characters are being sent, perhaps in the Notes section).  Thanks for reporting it.  

                           

                          Doug

                           

                          Yep I'm pretty wordy in my notes.  With a cursory look, I see a couple of #s, but no gibberish.  PMing you the whole thing.  Thanks, I'm anxious to see my chart.

                          Well at least someone here is making relevance to the subject.

                            LedLincoln and flatfooter,

                             

                            It should work now.  The culprits were tab characters from the notes which were not properly escaped (I'll have to let eric know).  So it will now strip any tab characters before parsing.

                             

                            And in the future it should still plot the races that it can parse, it will just put any un-parsable entries as an warning message below the graph.


                            Spring- wishful thinking

                              Interesting, if I take my last two 5k, half, and full marathons I get 1.0505.  Not a surprise, because my 5k times suck.

                               

                              Just for grins I took my best trail races beyond marathon pace: 30, 50K, 50 mile and I get 1.110.  Probably not all that meaningful because the formula is probably not intended to predict 50 mile time.  OTOH, it is still below the 1.15 coefficient.

                                Even when I throw out the known outliers, Doug's tool gives me around 1.09.

                                Like I said, either I'm a pansy marathon runner or else I'm just not cut out for it.  Dead

                                 

                                1.09 for me, too!

                                 

                                Very cool app., by the way.  And even cooler that you just share the code like that.

                                 

                                "If you have the fire, run..." -John Climacus