This is pretty much it. But Bart Yasso found they correlated, so to answer dave's question, at least one person found they worked. I was speaking to a friend of mine 2 weeks ago, and his Yassos actually predict slower than he can run a marathon. He's tall and skinny like me, not muscular at all. Not saying I can run a 2:56 marathon, but Yassos might be a better predictor for me than for most people, because McMillan and all those other predictors are pretty good for me whereas they're not good for most people.
This is pretty much it. But Bart Yasso found they correlated, so to answer dave's question, at least one person found they worked.
I was speaking to a friend of mine 2 weeks ago, and his Yassos actually predict slower than he can run a marathon. He's tall and skinny like me, not muscular at all.
Not saying I can run a 2:56 marathon, but Yassos might be a better predictor for me than for most people, because McMillan and all those other predictors are pretty good for me whereas they're not good for most people.
I don't know how true this is, but on the forum that no longer exists, people always claimed the calculators were only accurate if you were running in the 70 mpw range. So you probably get a fair amount of accuracy from them. Me, not so much--although it does show me what I already knew, I am way, way better at shorter distances than longer.
Never done them. I remember reading somewhere that the workout was less about predicting your marathon time & more a "truth" workout. So if your goal was 3:15 and you can't hit the workout, chances are you won't be able to run the marathon in it.
I used it more for this purpose. I didn't run them to see how fast I could do it. Based on culmination of my training, picked a reasonable marathon goal time and then ran this workout to help give me confidence it was doable (it was).
I wasn't really at the old place much, but I know people have always said that. It made me all the more disappointed when I actually did start running 70mpw and still couldn't hit the predictions. I've always been better at short distances despite always training more specifically for long distances. Everyone's different. I do know people who bank on the Yassos. So everyone just has to know themselves. It does make sense to me that if I couldn't run 3:15s, I shouldn't even think about a 3:15 marathons, but if I can run them, doesn't mean it'll translate. Anyway, this is obvious and a whole different discussion, but so many things have to go perfectly in a marathon to run your best time, that it makes it even more difficult for a workout to predict it.
Dave
delicate flower
Good news on the weather front: Stink bugs are finding their way into my house now, which means fall is coming.
<3
Are we there, yet?
The calculators compute equivalent times. They are not predictors. They are based on the assumption that training is equivalent and that talent for the distance is equivalent. They have the same strengths and drawbacks as age grading, which is merely a specialized calculator with an age factor. Even among elite runners it's a rarity to see top 1500m runners be as successful when they move to the roads or attempt a marathon.
2024 Races:
03/09 - Livingston Oval Ultra 6-Hour, 22.88 miles
05/11 - D3 50K 05/25 - What the Duck 12-Hour
06/17 - 6 Days in the Dome 12-Hour.
Good precision. clarification
MTA: In English I think precision might not be equivalent to clarification. Sorry about that.
I'm now officially registered for the virtual RnR AC virtual challenge. I sent them an e-mail that basically said this:
Well done! You paid for something and they give you something else. Not cool.
Time for a sing along ....
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9SQcK6EUqGc
Funny how out of all the easy days I run, Stryd decided today was a good day to lower my CP, as I've done a decent workout. Great choice, Stryd!
There's a popular December HM here that I've run a few times. I deferred last year which costs $20 extra and they sent a code to use for registration this year. Last week, I tried to register for 2020, with the thought that if I did nothing, I might be completely out of luck because deferral was only meant for one year, but if I registered then at least I could have my money go toward postponed/virtual race. OF COURSE, the code was invalid when I entered it--I emailed the race and haven't heard anything from them for the past week. I might need to borrow HCK's finger picture for my next email with them...