Damaris - glad to hear your asthma didn't keep you from the race. I ran 137.7 for May, including close to a week off. My RP and I ran 1 mile time trials today. I haven't run a timed mile since high school, over 3 decades ago, so I didn't know what to expect. I put in a 7:10.84, which is close to what the Riegel formula predicted based off my recent 5k and half marathon times. My RP was faster than I was, and by more than I can write off to our 5-year age difference. He pulled up the Nike chart that says I can run a 4-hour marathon based on my 1-mile time. Of course, being able to run 1 mile doesn't mean you can even finish a marathon, but my recent half marathon time suggests 4 hours is within reach for a full. I feel myself inching closer to running another marathon some time in the next few years. Anyone want to talk me back off the ledge?
Damaris - glad to hear your asthma didn't keep you from the race.
I ran 137.7 for May, including close to a week off. My RP and I ran 1 mile time trials today. I haven't run a timed mile since high school, over 3 decades ago, so I didn't know what to expect. I put in a 7:10.84, which is close to what the Riegel formula predicted based off my recent 5k and half marathon times. My RP was faster than I was, and by more than I can write off to our 5-year age difference. He pulled up the Nike chart that says I can run a 4-hour marathon based on my 1-mile time. Of course, being able to run 1 mile doesn't mean you can even finish a marathon, but my recent half marathon time suggests 4 hours is within reach for a full. I feel myself inching closer to running another marathon some time in the next few years. Anyone want to talk me back off the ledge?
Nice job on the mile! My mile time trial from last spring projects to a 3:14 marathon—no problem! Anyway based on your half PR, McMillan puts you at 3:59. However I always found any of the race time predictors to be extremely optimistic when projecting from shorter to longer distances, especially in my earlier marathoning days. I’d be more comfortable with sub-4 on a sub-1:50 half. If you’re giving yourself a year, if you can stay healthy and build up your weekly volume base a bit, I don’t see any reason you can’t make that happen.
Dave
10.2 miles, 195.6 for the month I ran a loop from my house that I don't usually do because of multiple freeway ramps. On a normal weekday it would be almost certain death to cross like 8+ lanes several times (and that's just the ramps!). I also ran back a road that is basically all marijuana dispensaries. Such a weird vibe after Just Say No to Drugs for my whole life and now there are legal drive thrus to get your drugs.
10.2 miles, 195.6 for the month
I ran a loop from my house that I don't usually do because of multiple freeway ramps. On a normal weekday it would be almost certain death to cross like 8+ lanes several times (and that's just the ramps!). I also ran back a road that is basically all marijuana dispensaries. Such a weird vibe after Just Say No to Drugs for my whole life and now there are legal drive thrus to get your drugs.
Marijuana is not a very strong drug. I would argue the fact that alcohol is more detrimental to the global population's health than marijuana. And no I don't smoke pot anymore, but I have, for many many years.
It is weird for me too that people smoke it walking on sidewalks all over the place, in broad daylight. Some old people who don't look like "rebels" at all. So weird, yes, but like I said, if alcohol is legal, I don't see why pot wouldn't be.
My mile time from last year (which I really need to find a race to see if this was a measuring issue) predicts a 22:03 5k and a 3:31 marathon. HAHAHAHA. Interestingly, when I use the Riegel calculator with my mile time, it matches my Garmin predictions within seconds. The Garmin race predictions are also lol.
sdWhiskers, is pot now legal for recreational use in CA? I haven't seen any more about it, a few years ago there was a big to-do that a vacant greenhouse/nursery was going to be converted to a grow site. They would only grow the plants, not open to the public. You would have thought it was going to become a huge pick-your-own weed destination. I think the site is still vacant.
Waltons ThreadLord
Nice work, Fred! I ran 7:13 twice in the past 2-3 years but haven't made that translate to HM or marathon.
Nice work, Fred!
I ran 7:13 twice in the past 2-3 years but haven't made that translate to HM or marathon.
Thanks. For me it's been the other way around. Training for, and racing, half marathons for the past several years has served to make me faster at shorter distances.
5k 23:48.45 (3/22); 4M 31:26 (2/22); 5M 38:55 (11/23); 10k 49:24 (10/22); 10M 1:29:33 (2/24); Half 1:48:32 (10/22); Marathon 4:29:58 (11/23)Upcoming races: Clinton Country Run 15k, 4/27; Spring Distance Classic 5k, 4/28
Riegel puts me at 4:00:08, which is pretty much the same. I agree with you on the formulas being optimistic. I'd be happy with sub-4:15. Heck, I'd be happy with sub-4:30. We'll see how the fall season goes.
Also, I want to see what my final back-in-the-office schedule looks like and whether marathon training will be an option based on that.
Am I the only one who has never heard of Riegel? Anyway, this is the best predictor I have found:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/marathon-calculator/
The Riegel formula is available right here.
https://www.runningahead.com/tools/calculators/race
The link you provided gave me 4:01:00. I guess once you get slow enough, they're all the same.
The Riegel formula is available right here. https://www.runningahead.com/tools/calculators/race The link you provided gave me 4:01:00. I guess once you get slow enough, they're all the same.
What's cool about the Riegel Formula in the RA calculator is that you can change the performance degradation coefficient until you find one that works for you (by trial and error), and then you have a customized / personalized marathon predictor!
ETA: In 2018 I had a great 10K, and then a great marathon, and the degradation coefficient between the two is 1.065.
When I use that coef value, it tells me that my HM PR is soft
The Riegel formula is available right here. https://www.runningahead.com/tools/calculators/race
OK, I have used the RA calculator, I just never noticed the name associated with it.
I would argue the fact that alcohol is more detrimental to the global population's health than marijuana.
Absolutely. I mean, am I even a mom if I'm not guzzling wine every day?
Marijuana has also been shown to not be harmless, especially to the developing brain (<20 yo). At the same time, there are multiple clinical trials in progress to see where positive impact can be made. I work in Neuroscience and it's fascinating to see how these different substances affect the brain (alcohol included).
I think it's been legal recreationally since 2016 here. It's probably been almost as long since I've done a run outside where I didn't smell it at least once.
The only thing I have to go on right now is my 20:13 5k from a few weeks ago. Here is what they predict:
RA/Riegel 3:22:12 - my current PR from 18 months ago is 3:22:16, lol.
Slate/538 3:18:32 - I would take that! The marathon is a bit hilly tho. Strangely it asks for difficulty of your recent races, but not of your marathon. McMillan 3:16:59 - rofl rofl
Daniels - I won’t even go there, because they predict crazy fast.
I meant my 7:13 mile time hasn't translated to the HM and marathon times the calculators say: 1:56 and 4:05. Instead, I've run 1:58 and 4:13. Sub 4 is still out of reach.
Are we there, yet?
Going by AG rating rather than bothering to calculate the equivalents for various distances, I see consistency for my PBs from 800m to 5K, then a drop off for 8K to HM, then another drop off for the marathon. I've never come within 10 minutes of what even my HM best gives as the marathon equivalent despite putting in several consecutive years running over 3000 miles. Why I'm running ultras now remains a mystery (actually I just enjoy the atmosphere of the races and the camaraderie).
2024 Races:
03/09 - Livingston Oval Ultra 6-Hour, 22.88 miles
05/11 - D3 50K 05/25 - What the Duck 12-Hour
06/17 - 6 Days in the Dome 12-Hour.
The only thing I have to go on right now is my 20:13 5k from a few weeks ago. Here is what they predict: RA/Riegel 3:22:12 - my current PR from 18 months ago is 3:22:16, lol. Slate/538 3:18:32 - I would take that! The marathon is a bit hilly tho. Strangely it asks for difficulty of your recent races, but not of your marathon. McMillan 3:16:59 - rofl rofl Daniels - I won’t even go there, because they predict crazy fast.
I don't think a 3:16 is crazytown
I ran a 3:16 marathon in 2015. In 2016 I spent a season trying and failing to run a sub-20 5k, which I didn't get until 2017
I don't think a 3:16 is crazytown I ran a 3:16 marathon in 2015. In 2016 I spent a season trying and failing to run a sub-20 5k, which I didn't get until 2017
Well our performance degradation coefficients are clearly very different.
I am still shooting for 3:20 3:19:59, but the idea of getting deeper into the teens is certainly rattling around in my head. I need 7:38, and plan to target 7:35ish. But of course +/- a couple seconds and +/- a tenth or two of distance make all the difference, for better or worse. The course is a bit hilly which won’t help, but the weather forecast right now actually looks amazing—a big surprise for this time of year. Occasional showers, low 47, high 52! Fingers crossed anything resembling that holds.