Runs4Sanity
FS You are deep in MRT, you will quite likely find it very tough to hit the target HM equivalent of a marathon time/ effort. If you don't hit your time for the HM, don't sweat it. This isn't a goal race and racing during training is Fing difficult. If you do hit your time for the HM, then I would hazard to say your goal Marathon time is soft. Personally, I would use it as race training - final gear selections - water station strategy - drinking on the run practice. Whatever the outcome ,for fucks sake don't let it get in the way of your goal mentally. (from experience)
FS
You are deep in MRT, you will quite likely find it very tough to hit the target HM equivalent of a marathon time/ effort.
If you don't hit your time for the HM, don't sweat it. This isn't a goal race and racing during training is Fing difficult.
If you do hit your time for the HM, then I would hazard to say your goal Marathon time is soft.
Personally, I would use it as race training - final gear selections - water station strategy - drinking on the run practice.
Whatever the outcome ,for fucks sake don't let it get in the way of your goal mentally. (from experience)
+100. I agree 100%, I will be running a on fatigued legs so I am not going to sweat it. Whatever happens November 1, no matter what.... I am crossing that finish line. But I will give it my best.
*Do It For Yourself, Do It Because They Said It Was Impossible, Do It Because They Said You Were Incapable*
PRs
5k - 24:15 (7:49 min/mile pace)
10k - 51:47 (8:16 min/mile pace)
15k -1:18:09 (8:24 min/mile pace)
13.1 - 1:53:12 (8:39 min/mile pace)
26:2 - 4:14:55 (9:44 min/mile)
Former Bad Ass
Then, you need to decide what you want to do with the race. Either push it (to see if 4 hours or 4:15 is a reasonable goal) or not. BUT DON'T CHANGE YOUR MIND!
Anyway, I don't think you need a race to tell you what your GMP is but first time marathoners tend to overestimate their ability to hit their GMP, IMO, especially since there is a huge difference between running a HM and a marathon and running 18-20 miles at X pace and the actual race. So, keep all of those in mind before you decide.
Damaris
race obsessed
The problem is that her goal is a) 4:00 b) 4:15 and c) 4:30. With no speedwork and no high mileage in training, isn't running for a 4:00 finish time risky if it's not backed up by at least a shorter race previous to goal race? If she's not ready for a 4:00 marathon come November and she ends up running some miles around 9:00 pace, what if she dramatically slow down and walk the last miles? She said many times that finishing strong is her main objective...
Yes, especially with limited history in those distances. However, pushing hard for a 1:45/ 1:50 in a fatigued state could very well end in a mental beat down that defeats her in the marathon goal before she even lines up to race.
You know, there is no training that can fully prepare you for 26.2 miles short of previous marathon races. Even elites such as Mo Farah find the distance difficult as a first time effort.
Then, you need to decide what you want to do with the race. Either push it (to see if 4 hours or 4:15 is a reasonable goal) or not. BUT DON'T CHANGE YOUR MIND! Anyway, I don't think you need a race to tell you what your GMP is but first time marathoners tend to overestimate their ability to hit their GMP, IMO, especially since there is a huge difference between running a HM and a marathon and running 18-20 miles at X pace and the actual race. So, keep all of those in mind before you decide.
Bold to emphasize:
This is something I tell my DD every race. Decide "is this is fun or a competition" and stick to it until the finish line. No changing your mind mid race, you will be angry at yourself after.
Well fuck me.....I am a very indecisive person damn it....
If I have to make a decision.....to make you happy.... my 3 goals are:
Ugh.......I hate making decisions like this, especially when I have no ideah how things are going to go that day. And I really hate telling others because i will feel like I failed if I don't finish under 4:30:00 and everybody knew my goals. Not to mention I am going to feel extremely pressured. D, why can't you come run the IMM with me?
I need a therapist....
I haven't followed the whole thread so this may have already come up.
Based on your previous HM PR of 1:56. Doubled +15 minutes puts you at a 4:07 Marathon finish time.
Do you feel as though you are in better shape now? Has your training been more/ less/ better?
At what fatigue level were you during that HM PR?
And another question!!
i have only ran one 20 miler ( had 2nd one planned 2 weeks ago but fell to 17 due to weather)and four 18 milers done. I only have one more chance at a good LR before my 2 week taper, should I try for one more 20 miler next Sunday (October 12) or leave it at 18?
Stick to the plan, you can't make it up.
Keep in mind a proper plan is not only distance and paces but also **timing** of the workouts.
FS I haven't followed the whole thread so this may have already come up. Based on your previous HM PR of 1:56. Doubled +15 minutes puts you at a 4:07 Marathon finish time. Do you feel as though you are in better shape now? Has your training been more/ less/ better? At what fatigue level were you during that HM PR?
Fitness wise I feel pretty damb good for being in my first marathon trainng cycle... and more confident about things.
One issue has begun to show its face again, stomach issues but hopefully I can get that figured out before 11/01.
I had just run my 4th HM 4 weeks before the HM PR, 2:04:48 and then 1:56:38 4 weeks later. I think I was still feeling pretty damn good even to the finish.
Screw that 4:07:00 lol, I don't wanna look at it.
I don't know if I would recommend using the double + 15 minutes formula to someone averaging around 40mpw.
For what its worth, if you feel you are in better shape now, I think you have a legit shot at a 4:00/ sub 4:00.
But it won't be easy, it will hurt like all hell and you will have to fight for it every step.
@onemile
I did consider that, though in this case I think it comes down to taper and willpower and how fatigued she has been prior to her 20 mile and 18 mile runs.
For what its worth, if you feel you are in better shape now, I think you have a legit shot at a 4:00/ sub 4:00. But it won't be easy, it will hurt like all hell and you will have to fight for it every step.
Disagree. There are a few people here who keep going back to a 4:00 target. I still think that is far too aggressive to consider as a realistic goal.
Dave
I hear you.
There are too many variables to put a solid forecast.
I never averaged 70 mpw until my last two marathons. Coming back from my torn PTT in '96 my next two marathons were 4:57 / 5:04 in '99 / '00 - over 90 minutes slower than my '95 marathon. Obviously, I needed to fully rehab my injury and improve my speed. For the next four years I focused on the half marathon distance; '02 - '04 until it projected a BQ. My times dropped from 2:05 - 1:39:47 in '04 which told me I had the speed to go 3:35. In '05 I ran 3:30:00 averaging 56.7 mpw while my 1:39:47 half - amazingly - projects to the second a 3:30:00 marathon. Admittedly, I was probably in better half marathon shape one year after my 1:39:47 but my next fastest half was a 1:38:26 in '06 so I'm guessing my speed wasn't that much improved. Four years later I dropped my half to 1:37:38 and three years later to 1:36:33 which is my current master PB. The "trick" is that it's not a prerequisite that you must average 70 mpw to run a faster marathon. That's certainly one way but what's worked for me is improving my speed at shorter distances; 10k - half marathon then carry that speed to the marathon by adding more miles [and obviously tweaking your quality workouts and long runs to some degree]. As I discovered in 2009 when I as running high mileage is that you do not have to tweak it very much when I set my master PB on 6 weeks of training - coming off 5k workouts - with 4 long runs and 2 speed endurance workouts. YMMV. Based on my marathon PB McMillian projected a 39:26 10k and my PB is 39:47. That year I averaged 17.3 mpw and 33.1 during my marathon schedule. YMMV. My 10k PB is weak [based on my 5k] but looking at the mileage I was recording there is no substitute for speed. ATST my marathon PB is weak due to my lack of endurance / mileage. Still, speed can make up for a lot of weakness' in other areas. 1981 - 3:35:18 zero [0] schedule / one 17 mile long run - 17.0 mpw average / 800 mpy 1982 - 3:22:25 15 week schedule / one 20 miler - 20.0 mpw average / 850 mpy 1983 - 3:05:01 15 week schedule / two 17 milers / one 19 miler - 33.1 mpw average / 900 mpy 1984 - 3:19:30 15 week schedule / four 20 milers / - 32.1 mpw average / 900 mpy 1991 - 3:18:36 22 week schedule / one 19 miler / two 20 milers / one 22 miler - 35.3 mpw average / 1394 mpy 1992 - 3:25:57 19 week schedule / two 18 milers / two 20 milers / one 21 miler / one 22 miler - 44.4 mpw average / 1600 mpy 1993 - 3:13:58 17 week schedule / three 17 milers / one 20 miler / one 22 miler / two 24 milers - 43.2 mpw average / 1722 mpy 1994 - 3:15:12 19 week schedule / two 18 milers / one 20 miler / one 22 miler / one 24 miler / one 25 miler - 44.7 mpw average / 1640 mpy 1995 - 3:12:23 19 week schedule / two 18 milers / two 20 milers / one 22 miler / one 24 miler / one 25 miler / one 26 miler - 44.9 mpw average / 1906 mpy 2005 - 3:30:00 17 week schedule / four 17 milers / three 20 milers / two 21 milers / one 24 miler - 56.8 mpw average / 1867 mpy 2006 - 3:30:21 11 week schedule / one 17 miler / two 20 milers / one 21 miler - 45.7 mpw average / 2020 mpy 2009 - 3:28:13 07 week schedule / two 20 milers / one 22 miler / one 23 miler - 77.1 mpw average / 3700 mpy 2010 - 3:29:16 12 week schedule / one 17 miler / one 18 miler / two 20 milers / one 21 miler / one 22 miler / one 24 miler - 80.0 mpw average / 3500 mpy
I never averaged 70 mpw until my last two marathons.
Coming back from my torn PTT in '96 my next two marathons were 4:57 / 5:04 in '99 / '00 - over 90 minutes slower than my '95 marathon. Obviously, I needed to fully rehab my injury and improve my speed. For the next four years I focused on the half marathon distance; '02 - '04 until it projected a BQ. My times dropped from 2:05 - 1:39:47 in '04 which told me I had the speed to go 3:35.
In '05 I ran 3:30:00 averaging 56.7 mpw while my 1:39:47 half - amazingly - projects to the second a 3:30:00 marathon. Admittedly, I was probably in better half marathon shape one year after my 1:39:47 but my next fastest half was a 1:38:26 in '06 so I'm guessing my speed wasn't that much improved. Four years later I dropped my half to 1:37:38 and three years later to 1:36:33 which is my current master PB.
The "trick" is that it's not a prerequisite that you must average 70 mpw to run a faster marathon. That's certainly one way but what's worked for me is improving my speed at shorter distances; 10k - half marathon then carry that speed to the marathon by adding more miles [and obviously tweaking your quality workouts and long runs to some degree]. As I discovered in 2009 when I as running high mileage is that you do not have to tweak it very much when I set my master PB on 6 weeks of training - coming off 5k workouts - with 4 long runs and 2 speed endurance workouts. YMMV.
Based on my marathon PB McMillian projected a 39:26 10k and my PB is 39:47. That year I averaged 17.3 mpw and 33.1 during my marathon schedule. YMMV. My 10k PB is weak [based on my 5k] but looking at the mileage I was recording there is no substitute for speed. ATST my marathon PB is weak due to my lack of endurance / mileage. Still, speed can make up for a lot of weakness' in other areas.
Damn, you went deep into the training log archives for that one!
It's one thing to hear it, it's an entirely different one to see it. Nice post Mike!
Well fuck me.....I am a very indecisive person damn it.... If I have to make a decision.....to make you happy.... my 3 goals are: 4:15:00 4:20:00 Sub 4:30:00 Ugh.......I hate making decisions like this, especially when I have no ideah how things are going to go that day. And I really hate telling others because i will feel like I failed if I don't finish under 4:30:00 and everybody knew my goals. Not to mention I am going to feel extremely pressured. D, why can't you come run the IMM with me? I need a therapist....
Cause it's a Saturday! I am doing NYCM the next day. Not in the mood for doubles.