DR after yesterday, 2:45 doesn't seem completely out of the possibility for you.
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I thought sub-2:50 was already a serious possibility for DR. This morning was a good race for Karsten, and he may be coming back, at least at the 10-mile distance, but I have no idea how LPRM will go for him. After his huge mileage last year, his times fell way off.
But I think DR may be capable now of the times Karsten was running last year when he was doing well - 58s @ 10, 2:50 and mid-to-high 2:40s at marathon -- I think. I'm not sure, as I didn't pay much attention, and Karsten races A LOT.
It's a 5k. It hurt like hell...then I tried to pick it up. The end.
I'd really like to think that I'll be able to average a pace in the marathon that's close to what I ran yesterday in my steady state (I can add 5 seconds to that pace and still break 2:45:00, and 17 seconds to that pace and still break 2:50:00) --- but I must admit that, at the conclusion of my 19-mile training run yesterday, the thought of continuing on for another 7.2 swift miles seemed awfully daunting. Meanwhile, I haven't been too concerned with competition from Karsten since Snapple, but I'm eagerly waiting to hear how well Demers (and Ogden!) did at the Colonial Half Marathon in Williamsburg, VA, today.
(moved to race results thread)
I may have just missed my best opportunity to keep myself employed post-sequestration. The division director heard I was a runner and his not-quite-secretary just called me to ask if I would be on a relay team for them at the Pax River 10 miler. I declined due to my plans to be in Boston that weekend. I'm now expendable.
The sacrifices ppl make for Boston. Is it really worth it....
So I waited too long and didn't register in time for a spot at LPRM. I am thinking about registering for Shamrock the following week to replace the LPRM, but I haven't decided. I had a terrible week of running last week after a number of good weeks.
Even if I had registered for LPRM I may be in a bit of trouble. Like DR, I made the mistake of doing a race like effort for a distance over the half marathon distance just two weeks before LPRM and after about a six week period of high quantity training and my legs are dead now. I think my legs think they already raced the marathon. I can kind of feel it on the roads, but when I run the Noland trail which has more ups and downs and twists and turns I really feel it (my legs are worn out). I am hoping to be able to revive them a little this week with 50 or so miles. Depending on how this week goes it will probably determine if I sign up for Shamrock (which usually doesn't fill up).
Jeez, Phil, why did you wait until the last minute? Liza made numerous posts on Facebook warning that the event was filling up rapidly. But it does sound like you wouldn't be in your most favorable running condition at the LPRM, anyway. And if you do make it into Shamrock, you'll have at least several CBRC'rs (like Jeff Thomas and Christina Wood) to share the experience with.
Meanwhile I'm not ready to throw in the towel and "call it" just yet. Though I really need the exercise (especially after all of last night's indulgences), as a last ditch effort to heal I didn't do anything today (other than a fair amount of walking around Arlington and DC this morning, Metro ride included), and I won't even use the elliptical tomorrow. Then on Tuesday I'll once again attempt a brief run after an elliptical warm up --- and if that run is just as awkward and painful as yesterday's was, then with a heavy heart I'll probably have to raise the white flag and send Liza my regrets. And then I suppose my best recourse would be trying to come back in time to compete at the Hospice 10k.
You know, if you decide you can't race it, you could ask Liza if you could transfer your bib to Phil. I mean, I think her official policy is "no transfers after it fills", so there is the risk of annoying her by asking, but, if she's not overwhelmed yet by marathon stuff, she might let you. Then you (DR) could sign up for Shamrock, or something further out, where you have a bit more recovery.
So I officially registered for the Shamrock Marathon today. Its kind of a bummer to miss out on LPRM, but Shamrock will be fun and I don't have to worry about tapering this week.
I thinking I am going to be back in St. Mary's for the weekend of March 23rd and 24th. Hopefully I'll be able to get in a couple good runs with all of you. After the marathon I switching gears to the 10K so I think I may try to get one tempo in (say 4 miles at a 6:45 pace) and a semi long run (say about 12 miles) the following day that weekend.
I'd recommend taking your first weekend post-marathon easier than that (maybe save the tempo for a bit later).
And an early reminder to Joe: Hospice and the Tiki Bar opening are once again not on the same weekend (last year Joe planned his April on the assumption that he would only have to be around So. MD during one weekend to be available for both the Tiki and Hospice traditions --- and thus he unwittingly booked a trip to Broadway for the weekend of Hospice).
The Leonardtown Hospice 5k/10k event: 04/13/2013
The 2013 opening of the Tiki Bar: 04/19/2013
April is mostly free for me so far, so I'm likely to do Hospice.
Phil, I won't be in town the weekend of the 23rd-24th. Sorry I'll miss you.
DR, I'm guessing you have another run planned for today. Will this be the final determination?
As an act of desperation, on Tuesday I purchased an ankle brace (a thin, "light support" one that should be able to fit within a running shoe) in hopes that it will make running practical/tolerable amidst apparent injury. Though I'm not terribly hopeful, I plan to try the brace out this evening --- yet, even if tonight's run shows little promise, I still might not make the final marathon decision until after the light 3 miles I intend to run on Saturday morning. At that point it should be fairly obvious whether running 26.2 fast miles the next day will be at all feasible ... though it's quite possible that I've descended into state of denial and/or delusion.
John Piggott is out, as he wrenched his foot whilst running over railroad tracks at mile 11 of the recent Little Rock Marathon (which he still finished in 2:48:00), and Karsten is dealing with anterior tibial tendonitis (I imagine he'll still run, but much slower than his potential --- and the same goes for the also injured Josh Dawson). Meanwhile, while Wardian remains the clear favorite, also running is Gary Krugger, who's already run six marathon in 2013 --- all between 2:42:08 and 2:58:59. Oh, plus the 50-year-old Patrick Kelly, who recently posted a 2:57:00. These last two guys may be Demers' biggest competition for 2OA.
Liza related all this to me as a scouting report regarding competition for me. Looks like I've got some (likely) bad news to break to her.