Ultra Runners


Ultrasignup Predictions (Read 678 times)

Demon of Bad Decisions

    If anyone has a race where the entrants are listed on Ultrasignup, you will notice that they now rank the entrants by predicted finish time.  I have no idea how they calculated this time, but it is entertaining.


    I was absolutely crushed to discover that not only will I not be competitive at my fall 100, but the winner (who has only raced one ultra, and that was six years ago) will be beating me by five hours.  I will try to move past this and just do my best.  Big grin

    I want to do it because I want to do it.  -Amelia Earhart


      Ah yes. The 'target' column.


      I wonder if that number will freak people out.


      "Well, I was all set to try for sub 24 at Rocky.  But ultrasignup said 27, so I figured I'd better slow down."


      old woman w/hobby

        Ha!  Luckily they haven't done mine yet.  I will be slow enough without their help!


        MTA:  I don't have enough races for them to guesstimate I think.



        Just run.


          No, like Ms Girl noted, they seem to guesstimate with as little as one result in their system.  And a six year old result might as well be a random number.




          Imminent Catastrophe

            Yeah, and I see some people who are projected to finish well after the cutoffs. Might as well drop right now.

            "Able to function despite imminent catastrophe"

             "To obtain the air that angels breathe you must come to Tahoe"--Mark Twain

            "The most common question from potential entrants is 'I do not know if I can do this' to which I usually answer, 'that's the whole point'.--Paul Charteris, Tarawera Ultramarathon RD.


            √ Javelina Jundred Jalloween 2015

            Cruel Jewel 50 mile May 2016

            Western States 100 June 2016

              I was supposed to run 22:30 at Western States. I wish.

                Never mind the fact that you ran Umstead in 18:45.  But then again, you aren't from Kansas so maybe that plays a huge factor Big grin

                  The prediction for PInhoti 100 has a guy from TN that has no results for races longer than 30 miles, beating Tim Olsen by about 20 minutes. 

                    They also predict that last years Cascade Crest 1st woman finisher will run 2 hours slower this year

                    "Famous last words"  ~Bhearn

                    Demon of Bad Decisions

                      Bumping this, since it was just brought up and I can't link to it.

                      I want to do it because I want to do it.  -Amelia Earhart

                      100K or Bust

                        On the results link Ultrasignup apparently doesn't verify they've got the right person. The results linked to my name are for someone who lives in a different state and is 11 years younger. That could make it difficult to accurately predict targets.

                        2017 Goals: for races not to be exercises in futility

                          I rank low on UltraSignup at 59.00% because I was unusually overweight when I first started ultramarathons, and I typically finished near the back of the pack at all of the ultramarathon races that I completed.  My ranking is gradually improving, but I do not take the ranking that seriously.   I finished ninth place at Georgia Jewel 50 Mile in September and enjoyed my most competitively impressive race performance to date at that event, but that only slightly improved my ranking.


                          UltraSignup gave me a targeted finish of 30:30:00 or so at Pinhoti 100, which would have resulted in my failing to make the 30-hour cutoff.  I finished in 28:54:18.  So there. 


                          I did have a 60.32% ranking on UltraSignup, but they had given me credit for a 50K in Oregon that another person with my name had apparently run.  I had to edit the results and remove that race from my results history. 

                            Thinking about it, the rankings obviously do not reveal everything.  At Pinhoti 100, I finished 92 out of 108 finishers on the official results.  I was discussing this with a fellow ultramarathoner a few weeks ago when we were working an aid station, though, and he corrected me by reminding me that I had finished 92 out of 192 runners who started Pinhoti 100, and told me that I should consider myself in the top half of the race rankings. 


                            I can see his point.   The 192 count included all starters, and did not include DNS people.  In other words, 192 people dressed up in running clothes, showed up at 6:00 in the morning at Pinhoti, checked in with the race director, and started the race, so I finished 92 out of those 192, in that sense. 


                            I am a rules person, though, so I listed on my blog that I simply finished near the back of the pack at 92 out of 108, and that I was just happy with a finish.  The UltraSignup ranking reflects my back-of-the-pack standing at this event. 


                            I guess the ranking at a particular ultra race depends on whether or not you want to go by the official results on UltraSignup, which ranks people compared to the finishers, or whether you want to base your ranking on how well you finished among all who started the race, whether or not they finished or had a DNF.  I rank myself in the finishers, because this keeps me grounded and makes me want to step up my game.

                            Demon of Bad Decisions

                              I don't like that ultrasignup doesn't give rankings for fixed time events. Their reasoning is that people use these races for a variety of reasons, one of which is to reach a set distance in a fast time before they quit. I have no idea what that has to do with the fact that it is still a 24 hour race, no matter what. I run 50ks for shits and giggles and as training runs, but I expect to be in the results, and I accept that it may lower my ranking because I did not treat it like the race it is. I couldn't see arguing with that.

                              I want to do it because I want to do it.  -Amelia Earhart


                                The math does not work for fixed time events.


                                Correct me if I'm wrong but their ranking is simply:


                                winner's finish time / your finish time = UA ranking


                                In a 24 hour race that's 1440/1440 = everyone's a winner.