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Revising your goal pace (Read 121 times)

Eisenmench


<3's heckin long zoomies

    How do you revise your goal pace/time during a training cycle?

    Do you have any tips on determining what is an achievable goal?

     

    I had set my goal time for my first marathon at 4 hours. The first 16 miles were done at a 8:30-9 minute mile (due to the pacers setting up a positive split). I ended up slowing down for the last few miles due to crowded water/nutrition stops and a lingering injury. My final time was just under 4:10.

     

    However, I'm now in the process of training for my second marathon and even though I set my goal at another 4 hour marathon, I am having no problem keeping a 9 minute mile pace during my "slow" road runs. I want to adjust to a faster pace, but am worried about setting too "bold" of a goal.

     

    Should I train as if I'm aiming for a ~3:45 marathon, or should I continue on the path towards a 4:00 marathon and re-adjust after I've officially met that goal?

     

    Thanks in advance!

    Started running - 2014

    1st marathon - 2017

     

    2018 races:

    Viking Dash Nationals 15K - 2/17/2018

    Rock and Roll Nashville FM - 4/28/2018

    Run Madtown 10K and HM - 5/26-27/2018

    Detroit Free Press FM, 5K, and 1mi - 10/20-21/2018

    Madison Marathon HM - 11/11/2018

      Plug a few of your most recent races into some of the race predictors and see what that gets you.

       

      Often the marathon predictors are a little on the optimistic side, but should get you pretty close if you do the proper training for the marathon.

      Age: 49 Weight: 202 Height: 6'3" (Goal weight 195)

      Current PR's:  Mara 3:14:36* (2017); HM 1:36:13 (2017); 10K 43:59 (2014); 5K 21:12 (2016)

        Try running a HM or 15k about 6 weeks before your marathon. It will give you a good idea of whether your fitness has really improved. Plug that number into a marathon predictor. Depending on your mileage, you may need to add 5 or 10 minutes to that number, since the assumption is that you are running 70+ mpw , but it will give you a good ballpark.

        ilanarama


        Pace Prophet

          You shouldn't be setting specific goals until just before the race, and they should be based on your fitness as evidenced by shorter race times, in combination with your mileage.  I like using race time predictors that take endurance into account such as Greg Maclin's RTE, which you can find on his website http://mymarathonpace.com.

           

          But you also shouldn't be training "for" a goal time - in fact, you really can't.  You should be training at your current fitness level, and then deriving a goal time from your fitness close to the race.  You also should not be running your regular runs at 9 minute pace unless you have a reasonable expectation of a 3:30 marathon!   What training program are you using?

           

          Most relatively new runners run their "easy" runs too hard.  You can determine the ballpark for your easy pace by plugging a 5k or 10k into a race time predictor that gives training paces, such as https://runsmartproject.com/calculator/ (and clicking the 'training' tab). (I wouldn't use these calculators for predicting a marathon time, though - most people have relatively better speed than endurance, and though the calculators may work for shorter distances they will be significantly off for the marathon.)

          PRs: 10 1:12:59 (4/2014) 13.1 1:35:55 (10/2013) 26.2 3:23:31 (12/2013)

          bloggy stuff at http://ilanarama.dreamwidth.org

          paul2432


            Plenty of us have goals well ahead of our races.  See the popular goal threads here (sub 3:00 and sub 3:20).

             

            I think having a goal is fine. Having a goal helps keep me engaged.  Running is a sport where consistency is a key success factor, and having a goal helps with that.

             

            I don't determine my race day pacing strategy until a few days before the race.  I train mostly by effort, so the training paces take care of themselves.


            Options,Account, Forums

              Cheserek had a goal going into this weekend (sub-3:50), and he made it.

              It's a 5k. It hurt like hell...then I tried to pick it up. The end.


              Options,Account, Forums

                Cheserek had a goal going into this weekend (sub-3:50), and he made it.

                 

                For a much further out schedule, Keitany is talking about an ambitious goal (WR) for London, and Bekele has been talking about WR as a goal for a while now.

                It's a 5k. It hurt like hell...then I tried to pick it up. The end.

                ilanarama


                Pace Prophet

                  There's nothing wrong with a goal, provided that it's based on realistic fitness rather than a random number pulled out of the air, and provided that you're willing to adjust it based on training and tune-up races. Which is different from saying "I want to run sub-X" based on X being a nice round number, and rationalizing that it's totally possible because you can run a half marathon at X pace/run a speed workout in a "run X" program/believe in yourself, darn it.

                  PRs: 10 1:12:59 (4/2014) 13.1 1:35:55 (10/2013) 26.2 3:23:31 (12/2013)

                  bloggy stuff at http://ilanarama.dreamwidth.org

                    If you can determine your current fitness level then you can

                     

                    a) determine your training paces (easy vs tempo vs interval vs repetition etc) and

                    b) get a ballpark figure for your goal pace.

                     

                    This is important because your training is a process that obviously takes multiple weeks/months.

                     

                    So thus far we are all in agreement, that there are multiple benefits of having a goal, despite recognizing that it is a rough estimate & moving target.

                     

                    Now how do you adjust it? There are multiple ways. If you haven't run any shorter distance races I would suggest a minimum 5k training run or better a 10k and then use that time. You can do this multiple times to adjust your training paces throughout the cycle.

                     

                    Another possibility is to guestimate your current VDOT. My gps watch does it automatically based on my training efforts. There are online resources that do that for you.

                     

                    And I am sure that I am missing a handful of other possibilities. I like Jack Daniels plans because there is a neat excel spreadsheet out there that automatically recalculates the paces for you and I have incorporated my training schedule so that I don't have to recalculate too much before a specific workout.

                     

                    Hope this helps. Good luck with your marathon and hope you beat the 4 hours!

                    Eisenmench


                    <3's heckin long zoomies

                      Thanks all!

                       

                      I'm using Hal Higdon's novice 2 program.

                      Unfortunately, most half marathons in Chicago aren't until May - after my marathon. I'll try to see if there's one in a closer state that I can attend.

                       

                      Everything I've read says to do your runs at "x seconds above race pace" so it's hard (for me) to train without some sort of nebulous goal in mind. I know it's possible to do so, I'm just nervous about that leap of faith, I guess.

                      Started running - 2014

                      1st marathon - 2017

                       

                      2018 races:

                      Viking Dash Nationals 15K - 2/17/2018

                      Rock and Roll Nashville FM - 4/28/2018

                      Run Madtown 10K and HM - 5/26-27/2018

                      Detroit Free Press FM, 5K, and 1mi - 10/20-21/2018

                      Madison Marathon HM - 11/11/2018

                      Laughlin


                      That Guy

                        I see you have RNR Nashville as a goal race.  Bear in mind that that course is very hilly, so your effort may match or exceed your first marathon, but your time may not be as fast.  Be prepared.


                        Good Grief!

                          Thanks all!

                           

                          I'm using Hal Higdon's novice 2 program.

                          Unfortunately, most half marathons in Chicago aren't until May - after my marathon. I'll try to see if there's one in a closer state that I can attend.

                           

                          Everything I've read says to do your runs at "x seconds above race pace" so it's hard (for me) to train without some sort of nebulous goal in mind. I know it's possible to do so, I'm just nervous about that leap of faith, I guess.

                           

                          If I may rephrase your question, it seems like it's more how do I set training paces rather than how to set a race goal. You've been running 4 years now and should also have a decent amount of racing experience. The various running calculators can help there if you have a good recent race time. That's not always the case, especially if it's been more than 3 months since your last race. This is where experience comes into play. You should have an idea of what race effort feels like. You can base your training off perceived effort rather than race pace. Long and easy run pace is usually determined that way in any case, so it shouldn't be a foreign concept.

                          2018 Goals: taking suggestions
                          2018 Races: Naked Bavarian 20M, D3 50K, Nun Run 5K, Rundle's Revenge 25K, NC 24

                          Eisenmench


                          <3's heckin long zoomies

                            I see you have RNR Nashville as a goal race.  Bear in mind that that course is very hilly, so your effort may match or exceed your first marathon, but your time may not be as fast.  Be prepared.

                             

                            Thanks for the warning!

                             

                            I've been trying to do more calf strengthening exercises and intense routes as a way to prepare.

                            My plan is to start incorporating stair climbing as a substitute for hill repeats during the week (in addition to the normal mileage).

                            Started running - 2014

                            1st marathon - 2017

                             

                            2018 races:

                            Viking Dash Nationals 15K - 2/17/2018

                            Rock and Roll Nashville FM - 4/28/2018

                            Run Madtown 10K and HM - 5/26-27/2018

                            Detroit Free Press FM, 5K, and 1mi - 10/20-21/2018

                            Madison Marathon HM - 11/11/2018

                            Eisenmench


                            <3's heckin long zoomies

                               

                              If I may rephrase your question, it seems like it's more how do I set training paces rather than how to set a race goal. You've been running 4 years now and should also have a decent amount of racing experience. The various running calculators can help there if you have a good recent race time. That's not always the case, especially if it's been more than 3 months since your last race. This is where experience comes into play. You should have an idea of what race effort feels like. You can base your training off perceived effort rather than race pace. Long and easy run pace is usually determined that way in any case, so it shouldn't be a foreign concept.

                               

                              Thank you for the advice. I appreciate that you understood the intent of my (poorly phrased) question.

                              I'm less concerned with "finishing in X time" as I am about pushing myself appropriately during training. I don't want to go too easy on myself, but I also don't want to injure myself.

                               

                              Prior to early 2017, all of my races were 5K (and I only completed one HM prior to my first marathon a couple of months ago). So I know I could absolutely benefit from the guidance of experienced individuals in this forum.

                              Started running - 2014

                              1st marathon - 2017

                               

                              2018 races:

                              Viking Dash Nationals 15K - 2/17/2018

                              Rock and Roll Nashville FM - 4/28/2018

                              Run Madtown 10K and HM - 5/26-27/2018

                              Detroit Free Press FM, 5K, and 1mi - 10/20-21/2018

                              Madison Marathon HM - 11/11/2018

                              jaimegu


                                To find your training paces, if you don't have a race close by,  try to put a 5K time trial yourself, replacing a 20-30 minute tempo or some long intervals.  Prepare for it as if it were a race. easy runs or rest in the previous days, look for ideal conditions and do a good warmup.

                                Recovering from a 5K shouldn't impact significantly the rest of your training

                                 


                                Another possibility is to guestimate your current VDOT. My gps watch does it automatically based on my training efforts. There are online resources that do that for you.

                                 

                                 

                                Mick,

                                My Garmin watch puts me between 58 and 60, however my best race performance is 52

                                Runalyze calculates it now around 53.5 which is closer to reality, at least at HM.

                                 

                                For a friend, his Garmin was giving him 52 to 54 but his best performance is around 46

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