Carolyn
Congrats to Opie and Ribs for your Cowtown races!
And Happy Birthday to C-R - he and Leslie are birthday twins!
I thought the issue I was having with the top of my foot hurting was fixed by loosening my shoelaces and re-doing the lacing pattern, but after yesterday's fat ass 50k my foot is sore again in the same place. So I'll take it easy till it heals up again. Guess it wasn't quite all better, or there's something else going on.
I hammered down the trail, passing rocks and trees like they were standing still.
9 miles 1 hr 21 min forest service road 5050 3000' climb This is a beautiful trail. You can see 5-6 rows of mountains in a row.
All probabilities are 50/50 in the end.
You're welcome, Spareribs. What he doesn't tell you is that we got to run together some. Great to see you! It wasn't my best or worst finish time, but I had fun out there! When you're pushing hard, you miss the little things sometimes, like seeing those little kids with their hand up for a high five and giving them one. Then of course there's the hashers near the end, too. How could I pass that up?
"I didn’t run a race until I was 41 and that was a marathon! Let that sink in for a minute." -me
Congrats to the great racers and happy bdays all around.
Welcome John
I had an early bday present of puppet show and cake with GD (only 13 days to go Holly!)
marj
Thanks Wild and everyone else. Had a great day. Ran 13.4 on some dead legs but got it done. Awesome day with family and friends.
Nice AG win Ribs.
Love the Lets Make a Deal twist.
Ok - off to have some birthday cake.
Cheers.
"He conquers who endures" - Persius "Every workout should have a purpose. Every purpose should link back to achieving a training objective." - Spaniel
http://ncstake.blogspot.com/
10 miles of trails today. challenging trails so my legs are trashed!
Tammy
MM #5615
Hello everybody!
I just got home after two days of driving from Florida. I want to go back!
I don't have any time but wanted to say happy birthday to those of you with birthdays and congratulations to those of you who ran this weekend. Holy smokes--you guys ran a whole lot of miles! wild...gee...I don't know why your foot is sore...it couldn't be because you ran a 50k!
I used to watch Let's Make a Deal all the time...but I'm not smart enough for all that probability stuff...I'm sure I would have been too stubborn to switch once I had chosen a door.
tomwhite--I read your post when we stopped to eat just south of Wisconsin, today. I almost spit my soup all over the table.
Oh--and I see you guys already scared John off...way to go.
Okay--I really have to go. See ya!
Maniac 505
Ribs and Opie: Congrats on your 50K SR Lopez was there also.
Just a little bike ride with a Dove, a Bromptoneering friend of hers and about 4000 of our closest friends today. This year Chilly Hilly lived up to it's name. We managed to catch a ferry an hour before the origional plan, that was good, we had an extra hour before it started raining. At the 1/2 way food stop, the weather was changing and the rain was starting, none of had to twist our arms to take the short cut home. about 25 miles and 1600' of climbing VS 33 and 2500 for the full course. With the rain, and picking up the road grit my 6 speed turned into a 3 speed for the last 1/4 of the ride. That happens to Bromptons sometimes.
By the way, the only way I could even hope to hang with Dove is that she ran a 24 hour race last weekend.
Dave
Happy birthday, Leslie and C-R! I know I'm late, but sentiments are the same. Also, happy belated birthday greetings to John, and I hope you post regularly. Don't worry about recognizing everyone and shout outs. Some of us (like Coastwalker) are really good at that. Some of us (like, ahem, yours truly) aren't good at that and that's ok (yeah, because I said so). Chime in anytime, let us know a little about yourself and what you're running for (because we're nosy, that's why).
Carolyn, that might be the reason... but you've got some irritation there from something, who knows what. The key is to treat it well and make sure you give it time. You're more or less indestructible, so I'm sure you'll be fine.
Welcome home, Mike! That was one helluva marathon you ran. Well done. What's next?
Nice, Spareribs! You say the heat didn't bother you, but I bet it's a large reason for the no energy feeling. Fun that you got to run with Opie, even if he did call you out. Heh. You know, us women really hate you guys for that...
ETA: Nice job on the Chilly Hilly with Dove, Divechief! Too bad Tet couldn't join you (wouldn't?). Sounds like kind of uncomfortable conditions, glad you took the short cut.
So... after 12.2 yesterday, I decided the bike path was in good enough shape that I could run from home to DH's office. But our bike paths on this side of "the loop" are in terrible shape. I took pictures, but haven't done anything with them yet. Will probably post on Facebook. The snowmachine trail that our bike path has become is almost unrunnable because of foot traffic, dogs, moose, you name it. What a mess. On the side by the University, the fat tire bikes have worn a nice runnable 10" wide path in the snowmachine tracks so it's nice. On this side, forget it. Terrible! So, I ran along the road, dealing with the obnoxious traffic that comes way too close for comfort. Got to the plowed bike path at 4.5 miles, and that was really nice (even with the ice still under the snow). 10.1 miles overall, gives me a 22.3 mile weekend. It's been a long time since I've run that much. Need to get better about that....
While I am procrastinating some more math! This time a quiz. In the real Monty Hall problem there are three doors. What are the odds you win the big prize if you switch after Monty Hall reveals one of the doors you did not pick has nothing behind it? The answer can be deduced from my original post.
It's 2/3.
Ok., I am stumped by this Monty Hall thing. The odds after he has given away the loser door is 50:50 that you picked the big winner, at that point, not from the beginning. That is why I don't understand why when he does do this counter offer thing, and there are only two doors remaining, that the contestant should then switch their answer. I understand the 100 plus doors thing, but not this. Sure their odds were 1/3 to begin with, but now they are 1/2. Unless, Monty is a little more enthusiastic to get the person to switch when he knows they have the wrong door. And they still decline, being rational beings.
Ok., I am stumped by this Monty Hall thing.
The odds after he has given away the loser door is 50:50 that you picked the big winner, at that point, not from the beginning.
That is why I don't understand why when he does do this counter offer thing, and there are only two doors remaining, that the contestant should then switch their answer. I understand the 100 plus doors thing, but not this. Sure their odds were 1/3 to begin with, but now they are 1/2. Unless, Monty is a little more enthusiastic to get the person to switch when he knows they have the wrong door. And they still decline, being rational beings.
Well, you're in good company. The famous mathematician Paul Erdős didn't believe the answer, until it was proven to him with a computer simulation running thousands of simulated trials. (Erdős is considered so important that mathematicians are proud of their "Erdős number" -- if you co-authored a paper with Erdős, you have an Erdős number of 1. If you co-authored a paper with someone with an Erdős number of 1, you have an Erdős number of 2. Etc.)
Look at it like this. Whichever door you pick, there is at least one other door Monty can open that doesn't have the prize. So his opening one door or the other gives you no information about whether your original guess was correct. It was correct with probability 1/3; the probability is still 1/3. That means that the door Monty didn't open must have the prize with probability 2/3.
My wife (Ph.D. in geophysics) didn't believe it either. I had to play the game with her a bunch of times to convince her.
A lot depends on the exact wording of the problem, and assumptions on what rules Monty must follow; slight changes will change the answer.
This makes interesting reading: Monty Hall problem - Wikipedia
Now a math problem for you, twocat (and anyone else). You might have heard this classic, posed by Martin Gardner:
Mr. Smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys?
The answer is 1/3, not 1/2, as you might expect. Why? Well, there are originally four equally likely possibilities: boy/boy, boy/girl, girl/boy, girl/girl. If you are given that at least one is a boy, then you can rule out girl/girl, but the others are still equally likely. And boy/boy is only one of the three possibilities.
OK. Got that? Now let me blow your mind.
I was at a conference a few years ago when this happened.
Gary Foshee, a collector and designer of puzzles from Issaquah near Seattle walked to the lectern to present his talk. It consisted of the following three sentences: “I have two children. One is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability I have two boys?”“The first thing you think is ‘What has Tuesday got to do with it?’” said Foshee, deadpan. “Well, it has everything to do with it.” And then he stepped down from the stage.
Everyone in the audience was familiar with the problem originally posed by Gardner. But this variant caused quite a large amount of consternation and argument for the remainder of the conference. Indeed, the answer is not 1/3.
OK, I hope Bob doesn't care, I called him out on this thread, He qualifies as a master, He is a sub 3 hour marathoner, but he doesn't post here often. His PHD is basically in puzzels and games,
argue away.
Look at it like this. ...
... and, to be a little more explicit:
There are 9 equally likely scenarios:
1. Prize is behind A, you choose A, Monty opens B or C
2. Prize is behind A, you choose B, Monty opens C
3. Prize is behind A, you choose C, Monty opens B
4. Prize is behind B, you choose A, Monty opens C
5. Prize is behind B, you choose B, Monty opens A or C
6. Prize is behind B, you choose C, Monty opens A
7. Prize is behind C, you choose A, Monty opens B
8. Prize is behind C, you choose B, Monty opens A
9. Prize is behind C, you choose C, Monty opens A or B
In cases 1, 5, and 9, you guessed the right one, and should stay there.
In cases 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8, you guessed a wrong one, Monty showed you the other wrong one, and you should choose the remaining one.
So, by switching, you'll win 2/3 of the time.
Now do you believe it?
Thanks Bob
I understand it completely now.
So when you switch, 1/3 of the time you will lose. And hate yourself for switching. That is why people like to stick to their original answers.
"During a marathon, I run about two-thirds of the time. That's plenty." - Margaret Davis, 85 Ed Whitlock regarding his 2:54:48 marathon at age 73, "That was a good day. It was never a struggle."
I've missed bhearn! But I'm still not sure I get it. Oh well. Life goes on.