The COVID-19 Wild West Thread (Read 485 times)


Country Fried

    So there are 9 vaccines in Phase III trails. It is likely that only one or two will win and be recommended for widespread use.

     

    Take politics out of it and rely just on the science, we would normally not have this for 6-24 months after the start of this kind of trial. (Actually, normally, with a new drug actually, it would be years. But for a number of scientifically appropriate reasons, this is moving faster.)

     

    Once approved, 330 million doses x 2 will need to be produced in the US, then distributed cold via supply chains that don't currently exist to clinics and public health settings that are not yet set up to vaccinate masses. This will take a long time to set up.

     

    All this to say: don't expect widespread vaccination anytime soon unless there are major changes to production, supply chain, administration sites, and regulations around opting out.


    Country Fried

      Also, what MikeyMike said.

        well, too late NOW for some of us! I guess I'll just crawl off and die now.

         

        https://www.wired.com/story/if-youve-just-had-covid-exercise-might-not-be-good-for-you/

        55-59 age group  -  University of Oregon alumni  -  Irreverent and Annoying

        JMac11


        Taper Czar

          I saw a recent poll that only 27% of Americans will get the vaccine the minute it's available. I agree it's the government's job to convince folks to get it, but that doesn't mean they will. It also may mean we only get that number up to 2/3 of Americans. So when I say widely available, I actually do think it will be widely available this spring, mainly because people aren't going to be rushing out to get it. Note that people not getting the vaccine aren't necessarily anti-maskers, they're just worried this whole thing is getting rushed.

           

          On the office side, even if people are asked to come in twice a week (which I think is the way of the future), that still requires them to be vaccinated. Maybe that reduced traffic will lower the need to be vaccinated, but I don't think employees will be comfortable with any time in the office and mass transit without being vaccinated.

           

          Darkwave - I definitely think it's more the PR side of it, not whether company's will be legally liable. No company is going to fire someone in June 2021 if they aren't coming into the office and a vaccine is available. But how long will that last? I certainly know that my patience is going to wear thin for people if they refuse to get vaccinated if everything looks safe. I also think there will be a small subset of folks who will refuse to get vaccinated not because they fear the vaccine, but because they want to continue 100% work-at-home as long as they can.

           

          To your point about flashing something saying you're vaccinated: that will be an interesting world if it comes to that. Can't wait to see the fakes that are produced.

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          Next Race: Whatever COVID-19 will allow me to run 

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            No company is going to fire someone in June 2021 if they aren't coming into the office and a vaccine is available.

             

            I think this will all depend on the industry. I've worked in a school that is a part of a larger healthcare organization for almsot 20 years. Flu shots have been mandatory for everyone for several years now. The opt out require very specific circumstances (so I don't want it is not a legitimate reason). I suspect once a covid vaccine is available, it will be mandatory with tight opt out guidelines. You will get fired for not getting a flu shot, so I suspect once a covid vaccine is available, same rules will apply.


            Feeling the growl again

              I actually do think it will be widely available this spring, mainly because people aren't going to be rushing out to get it.

               

               Trent -"Once approved, 330 million doses x 2 will need to be produced in the US, then distributed cold via supply chains that don't currently exist to clinics and public health settings that are not yet set up to vaccinate masses. This will take a long time to set up."

               

              The US government has started signing contracts for vaccine, with two big ones being to Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech for their mRNA vaccines.  While I've expressed my long-term excitement for this technology, as I posted before and Trent notes above, this is not the flu vaccine.  The supply chain and infrastructure to manufacture, distribute, and administer these vaccines by the millions literally doesn't exist.  Distributing ANY therapeutic which requires shipping at -80F is daunting; doing so in quantities of millions has never been done before.  Your average doc's office or even hospital doesn't have the equipment to store it or store in a large quantity.

               

              I think we'll have at-risk populations getting vaccinated by spring.  I don't think the average person will have at-will access for longer.  This assumes one or more work...

              "If you want to be a bad a$s, then do what a bad a$s does.  There's your pep talk for today.  Go Run." -- Slo_Hand

               

              I am spaniel - Crusher of Treadmills

               


              an amazing likeness

                ...

                Darkwave - I definitely think it's more the PR side of it, not whether company's will be legally liable. No company is going to fire someone in June 2021 if they aren't coming into the office and a vaccine is available.

                ...

                 

                Likely more so than legal exposures, the property/casualty insurance markets will have a significant influence on employer behavior in regards to workplace responses and actions to mitigate employee risks while in scope of their duties and workplace. The insurance markets have finite capacity to pay legal claims derived from COVID-19 caused damage claims. Large capacity, but finite.

                Acceptable at a dance, invaluable in a shipwreck.


                Country Fried

                  Agree. Lots of speculation that there will be an EUA for high risk groups such as healthcare providers and certain patient populations. The rest of the population would likely follow. This approach requires ongoing distancing and masking/PPE requirements for those who were immunized since there won't be anything remotely like herd immunity for a long time to follow.

                   

                  I think we'll have at-risk populations getting vaccinated by spring.  I don't think the average person will have at-will access for longer.  This assumes one or more work...

                  Running Problem


                  Curmudgeon

                    I saw a recent poll that only 27% of Americans will get the vaccine the minute it's available. I agree it's the government's job to convince folks to get it, but that doesn't mean they will. It also may mean we only get that number up to 2/3 of Americans. So when I say widely available, I actually do think it will be widely available this spring, mainly because people aren't going to be rushing out to get it. Note that people not getting the vaccine aren't necessarily anti-maskers, they're just worried this whole thing is getting rushed.

                     

                    On the office side, even if people are asked to come in twice a week (which I think is the way of the future), that still requires them to be vaccinated. Maybe that reduced traffic will lower the need to be vaccinated, but I don't think employees will be comfortable with any time in the office and mass transit without being vaccinated.

                     

                    Darkwave - I definitely think it's more the PR side of it, not whether company's will be legally liable. No company is going to fire someone in June 2021 if they aren't coming into the office and a vaccine is available. But how long will that last? I certainly know that my patience is going to wear thin for people if they refuse to get vaccinated if everything looks safe. I also think there will be a small subset of folks who will refuse to get vaccinated not because they fear the vaccine, but because they want to continue 100% work-at-home as long as they can.

                     

                    To your point about flashing something saying you're vaccinated: that will be an interesting world if it comes to that. Can't wait to see the fakes that are produced.

                     

                    So now work is going to be able to require me to be vaccinated, and schools will require this? You do realize there are areas of this country where vaccinations are not required, right? It always comes back, for me, to the effectiveness of masks. If they work we shouldn't need a vaccine. If they don't work we shouldn't need to wear them. If you're vaccinated then I shouldn't need to be since you're protected. No one, other than a hospital I know employees of, REQUIRES a flu shot for work. Why would COVID 19 be treated any differently? If a vaccine is required for me to go in to the office I'll be in that "small subset" you speak of working from home.

                    There was an outbreak of whooping cough at a high school. The school actually unenrolled kids so they could quarantine for the require period. Otherwise they'd have been kicked out of the system for missing too many days of school. Oh and this was 10 months ago. All because people didn't have their Tdap shots/boosters. Good luck with the COVID 19 vaccine requirement honestly. Working from home seems to be the best vaccine until society stops caring so much about COVID 19 and wants to go do stuff like gender reveals in Yucaipa.

                    2020 Goal: Figure out the problem.


                    Elite Jogger

                       

                      It seems to be impossible for our special buddy here to make a post without sliding in some weird goddamn reference to racism. I don't get that.

                       

                       

                       

                      Genuine straight up question....what did he say that was a reference to racism?

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                      darkwave


                      Mother of Cats

                        I would humbly submit that masks working is not a binary yes/no type thing.  Nor is a vaccine.  These are both things that can reduce risk (rather than the binary extremes of doing nothing or 100% protection).

                         

                        Hence the possibility of vaccination + masks.

                         

                        To my mind, every thing that we do to reduce risk, be it wearing masks or getting vaccinated, gets us closer to a more normal life, which has its own health benefits.

                        Everyone's gotta running blog; I'm the only one with a POOL-RUNNING blog.

                         

                        And...if you want a running Instagram where all the pictures are of cats, I've got you covered.


                        Country Fried

                          It always comes back, for me, to the effectiveness of masks. If they work we shouldn't need a vaccine. If they don't work we shouldn't need to wear them. If you're vaccinated then I shouldn't need to be since you're protected.

                           

                          Of course it does.

                           

                          Based on nearly everything you post, you only see anything in black and white. On and off. Hot and cold. You only see things as opposing extremes. Zero or one.

                           

                          But that is not how nature works. NOTHING is nature is black and white.

                           

                          We manage health and wellness, like how so much of effective interventions in this world, iteratively. Masks protect well, but not perfectly. Social distancing protects well, but not perfectly. Being outside protects well, but not perfectly. Masks worn outside at a distance from other people protect better than any of the three do independently.

                           

                          Likewise, vaccines are not all or none. Vaccines add one more layer of protection. Indeed, as I indicated above, an individual getting vaccinated portends some protection, and the entire community being vaccinated such that herd immunity is induced portends additional protection by reducing how much virus is circulating in that community. Until there is herd immunity and low circulating virus in the wild, being vaccinated will offer some protection, and masks, distancing, etc will add to that protection.

                           

                          This adaptive approach is often referred to in science and medicine as "the swiss cheese model". One piece of swiss cheese has holes. Two stacked pieces together will cover some of the holes. Three pieces cover even more holes. If you want to close off all the holes, you need several pieces of cheese. To be clear, this is a metaphor and not a recommendation that stacking swiss cheese per se will protect you against COVID.

                           

                          Or as DW said:

                           

                          I would humbly submit that masks working is not a binary yes/no type thing.  Nor is a vaccine.  These are both things that can reduce risk (rather than the binary extremes of doing nothing or 100% protection).

                           

                          Hence the possibility of vaccination + masks.

                           

                          To my mind, every thing that we do to reduce risk, be it wearing masks or getting vaccinated, gets us closer to a more normal life, which has its own health benefits.

                          John Wood


                            I had this brief idea that I should make a mask of multiple layers of Swiss cheese. Not sure about the efficacy of said mask, but I think  this is an idea I can sink my teeth into.

                            rlopez


                               

                              Genuine straight up question....what did he say that was a reference to racism?

                               

                              Please look up "separate but equal." His posts are loaded with bullshit like that which only exists to fuck with people. (edit: and/or claim faux grievance. I can't tell, I don't care, I just want him to move on and stop bringing it up over and over and over and over and over and over etc etc)

                                Hey! Are some people still thinking masks are to protect THEM?!

                                 

                                Have they been living under a rock with no internet or TV or radio or newspapers or magazines or cell service for 6 months?

                                 

                                If they are operating under that illusion, I could see why they are so whiny. Ignorance creates a lot of false pretences by otherwise well-intentioned people.

                                55-59 age group  -  University of Oregon alumni  -  Irreverent and Annoying