For those who don't know this: I hate 10Ks.  I really, really, really hate them.  My PR is soft any way you look at it -- I should be able to run at least two minutes faster whether you look at my HM PR or my 5K PR.  It doesn't help that I don't think I've ever run a 10K on a day that wasn't hot and humid, but I've run 5Ks in that weather, and didn't do as poorly as you would think based on those 10Ks!

I'm running a 10K this weekend.  Surprise, surprise -- it's supposed to be hot and humid.  (Around 80°, 80% humidity... I hope that changes in my favor over the next three days but I'm not counting on it.)

I can't decide what to aim for here.  It's a completely flat course, so I'd like to choose a pace and stick with it.  Can I count on a predictor to be semi-accurate if the race I use as the indicator was also hot and humid and disgusting?!

5k PR_____

10k PR______

Half PR _______

 

Fill in the blanks so we have something to work with please.

 

Thank you.

21:21

48:02

1:41:51

I was going to say, aim for a 7:00 pace. But it looks like McMillan is a little kinder - he says 7:08. Since both are hot and humid, I would say... 7:08 sounds like a good place to start. And then pick up the pace in the second half. 

I was going to say, aim for a 7:00 pace. But it looks like McMillan is a little kinder - he says 7:08. Since both are hot and humid, I would say... 7:08 sounds like a good place to start. And then pick up the pace in the second half. 

What ARE you smoking?!  And isn't it a little early in the day for that?!

 

This is really close to mine (see below).  My 5k PR was last October (60 degrees), HM in April (50 degrees, windy), and the 10k in May (70 degrees, windy).  I hate 10k's too, and I've never raced one in ideal conditions.  Based on my 5k, McMillan says 7:04 pace, but no way would I do that in 80 degrees.  Maybe start @ 7:20 and see how you feel after 5k?  That being said, I am usually over conservative, so....

I'm the same... my HM PR was actually supposed to be sub-1:40 (I've been chasing that for what seems like forever), but I decided I'd rather err on the side of caution and PR than attempt what I "should" be able to do and blow up.

 

21:21 5K was last week; hot and humid, but not SO bad.  There was one two weeks prior to that that was way worse (something like 90° and 85% humidity, I think), where I ran 21:52.

 

I'd stick with this, since your 10k was too hot and your half too long ago, imo.  If it's similar conditions to your 5k, I'd go out at 7:10-7:15 and then see how you feel and progressively pick it up if you can.  If it's hotter, then I'd go out more conservatively.  The biggest thing for me with 10Ks is staying focused in the middle, it's just long enough of a race for me to lose focus and let my pace drop mid-race.

 The biggest thing for me with 10Ks is staying focused in the middle, it's just long enough of a race for me to lose focus and let my pace drop mid-race.

This.

I am a Daniels boy, who also projects a 7:08 pace.

 

Generally speaking, I typically start a 10k with Daniels tempo pace (which for you is a 7:19), and work my way towards the equivalent race pace as the race progresses.

 

Now while I may not always reach that particular pace, the strategy has worked extremely well for me.

 

That is but one method of many however, so you have to choose what works for you and more importantly, what appeals to you.

What appeals to me is not running 10Ks.

 

I'd stick with this, since your 10k was too hot and your half too long ago, imo.  If it's similar conditions to your 5k, I'd go out at 7:10-7:15 and then see how you feel and progressively pick it up if you can.  If it's hotter, then I'd go out more conservatively.  The biggest thing for me with 10Ks is staying focused in the middle, it's just long enough of a race for me to lose focus and let my pace drop mid-race.

That seems really aggressive to me... keeping in mind that until very recently, that was my 5K PR pace.  (And a hard-fought one at that!)

Something around 44:30 sounds reasonable.

I think it sounds insane.

Originally, I was planning to go out around 7:25-7:30... but unless it's a total soupy mess, maybe that IS too conservative.  7:20-7:25 for the first 5K, and then see what happens on the way back?

(I ran this race in 2013.  Almost perfectly even splits, and finished in 48:16.  Yeah, my 10K PR has improved by fourteen whole seconds in two years.)