What's realistic? Sub 4:30 mile. (Read 3485 times)

I'd say it's a huge long shot. But nobody here can tell you for sure--you'll have to find out for yourself and it will take a ton of work to do so. It sounds like you already know that. If I had to guess, I'd say fewer than 10% (and probably a lot less than that) of people on this planet have the genetic capability to ever run a mile in under 4:30 and most of them probably could run low 5's even when significantly out of shape. It would be pretty amazing progress for a highschooler to go from 5:22 to 4:30 in one year, let alone an adult. Good luck, though. It's worth finding out.

Runner92, seeing your goal is a great inspiration to me. Relative to my teammates, I was only in so-so shape in high school and I managed just under a five minute mile. Right now I could probably break 6, barely, but I definitely hope to break 5 again. Just maybe not in the next year. But hey, if you're gonna do it, why can't I?

If you can run a 5:22 now and you are only 26 years old, then you can certainly run a 4:30 in 2008. It won't be easy, but if you work smart and hard then you'll be able to bring your time down. More than half of reaching that goal is mental.

Blaine, Have you ever tried it? It's the equivalent of running 10k in mid or low 32's. The farther you go down on the scale, the tougher it becomes to knock off more time. I'm sure you've probably noticed that in your own running. In my own case, it took me a month to go from a 50 minute first ever 10k down to a 41. In another 3 months I was in mid 39's. By the end of that year I ran 36:13. It took another year to shave off another minute by running 35:17. That takes care of my first 2 years. It wasn't until 8 years later that I ran 33:48 and 33:50, which were my all-time PR's. My experience is not unusual. We go like a house of fire for the first couple years, then progress slows. I could run a mile in 5:20's in my first year, and while I have above average talent, it is nothing out of the ordinary. When I ran those sub 34 10k's I wasn't even in the top 3 masters in the small club I ran for. I know that the mile and 10k are different, but a minute for 10k is like 10 seconds in the mile. With some work I can see getting under 5 minutes in less than a year, or maybe even 6 months, but 4:30 is on a different planet. Once you to get to a couple seconds under 5 minutes, every 10 seconds after that could take a year or even more. At some point there is a wall that is next to impossible to penetrate. I've heard that 4:20 is a major barrier for many good, but not great, milers. To take nothing away from runner92, I would say that 4:30 within a year would be a huge longshot, to put it mildly. Just for fun I looked up the results of this year's Fleet Feet Mile that's run here in the Bay Area. There was one guy who finished in exactly 4:30. His name is Steve Immel and he placed 13th. Then I looked at some recent results at other distances that followed that mile race. He had a 25:16 8k (5:05 pace), 15:12 5k (4:54), and a 1:08:22 HM (5:13 pace). I'm wondering if you guys realize just how good of a runner you have to be to run a mile in 4:30. It might not sound as hard as some of these other times but it really is. Sub-4 guys like Alan Webb are running 10k's in the 27's nowadays.

I don't get it. You say you are in the midst of a six-month base building period and holding back doing intervals has been difficult but you just set PRs in the mile and 10k this month and scanning your log it seems like you're doing speed on a regular basis. You also said that you stopped running for four years and have picked it back up over the past 4.5 months or so. Is 5:22 your overall PR or just since you started running again? If you're serious about this goal than those easy runs (looks like they're sitting around 8+ min pace) will have to get faster and faster. You'll probably need to be cruising around 6:30 pace for 40+ miles and those miles should be cake. And then you'll have to add two track workouts a week to get your turnover back. Good luck though. Keep us posted.

My overall PR was set when I was early 22. I ran the mile in 4:01...

Okay I want to change my answer. That's probably the most important data point you could have left out. You can run 4:30 in '08 if you want to.

My intervals that I've been documenting in my log have been more like fartlek mixed in with my regular runs. I did test myself recently with a few fast kicks but nothing close to a real interval session or maximal effort sprints, which I won't allow myself to do until the start of March, 08. My overall PR was set when I was early 22. I ran the mile in 4:01 back then after training pretty much from the time I was 14. I *almost* broke the 4 minute barrier and probably could have by now if I didn't give it up, but I was totally overwhelmed with trying to balance a serious relationship and a full time career, both of which were totally new to me at the time. Ahh, yes, the easy runs. I remember when I could run a 5:30 mile at an RPE of about 5ish or maybe even less. I didn't have a heart rate monitor back then but I'm pretty sure they were aerobic miles between 70% and 80% max heart rate. I can't wait to get that back. It was such a good feeling.

Nice. Sounds like you know what's in front of you and you certainly have the talent to draw upon. I'd caution you in saying "probably could have by now" when referencing breaking the 4 minute barrier as that is very hallowed ground. Plus that 1-2 seconds can be difficult even under the best of circumstances. It's odd that you put an exclamation point by your 5:22 mile in your log and even said "currently my best time is 5:22.45 set a couple weeks ago" but I understand long layoffs and the need to begin anew. Where did you run in college?

Runner92, seeing your goal is a great inspiration to me. Relative to my teammates, I was only in so-so shape in high school and I managed just under a five minute mile. Right now I could probably break 6, barely, but I definitely hope to break 5 again. Just maybe not in the next year. But hey, if you're gonna do it, why can't I?

I'm glad I have inspired you! Honestly, I'm not sure what's realistic (which is why I started this forum post) but if I clear 4:45 by the end of 2008, I'll be satisfied.